tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-74666433344229873222024-03-06T14:39:12.922+00:00Calum CashleyCalum CashleyAnseohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09107667224537870586noreply@blogger.comBlogger866125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-52642931036847237772017-09-16T00:59:00.000+01:002017-09-16T00:59:34.110+01:00Hubris and conceitLabour's David Martin has <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15536797.Labour_stalwart_calls_for_coalition_with_SNP_at_Holyrood/?c=pho8ws" target="_blank">called for Labour and the SNP to start working towards</a> a coalition at the next Holyrood election in 2021. It's hubris and it's horrendously conceited and here's why -<br />
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1. It assumes that the SNP and Labour will be in a position to form a coalition. The election is four years away and votes belong to people, not to parties. Parties have to earn those votes at each and every election; we have no guarantees, no safe seats, no cast-in-concrete will of the people. Politics always had some malleability but politics in Scotland is definitely fluid now, it's constantly shifting and politicians have to keep ahead of that. It may be difficult to appreciate that when you're divorced from it in Brussels and Strasbourg and glad-handing your way around other similarly disconnected politicos but it's there.<br />
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2. It shows contempt for the electorate. If you want to form a coalition ahead of an election to fight the election on a joint ticket there's already a term for that, we call it a political party. Members of political parties don't agree on everything, they agree on enough to stand on the same platform, distinct enough from other platforms to set them apart but not together on every jot and tittle of policy. If Labour members want to suck it up and admit that the SNP is the better party they can apply for membership here - https://www.snp.org/joinus<br />
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3. If supporters of the Labour party don't like what the SNP does / is doing / proposes then why would Labour candidates tell those supporters to suck it up and vote for them anyway, to put the SNP back into government to do the things that those supporters do not like? Similarly, if SNP supporters don't like Labour's bawbaggery why would we suggest that Labour should get a say in forming our policy platform?<br />
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4. Minority Government (from our limited experience of it) appears to be good - the party in government has to be braver but more willing to compromise, sharper in office but more attentive to the voices elsewhere. Parties in opposition need to be constructive as well as oppositional, need to offer an alternative that could work rather than just be a soundbite. All of that, along with the need to get a majority for votes in Parliament, leads to better and more meaningful debates in Parliament and makes Parliament stronger. I appreciate that there is a view that a strong Parliament is not a good thing but it's not one I share.<br />
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5. If parties agree a coalition ahead of an election then they are depriving the electors of choice - they have made their two parties into one party but without the strength of being one party. Politicians have the right to stand on a collective platform but they don't have the right to pretend that it's a plurality. If you're standing together you have to be in the same party.<br />
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6. Politicians don't get to tell voters how to vote. That horrible arrogance that says "who else can they vote for?" is no basis on which to seek to govern a country. It also ignores the recent history of politics in Scotland where Labour dominance gave way to the SNP without much fanfare and where the Tories made a comeback without offering any substance. Anyone who stands in the path of Scotland's voters these days, trying to direct them down one path or another, risks ending up like Wylie Coyote and wondering why.<br />
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There are a couple of other things from that article worth pointing out. Firstly, it says that the SNP in Edinburgh and Labour in Cardiff working together proves an affinity. Observing from Brussels and thinking that you're looking down on Scotland and Wales I can see how they might come to that view but it's wrong. Nicola Sturgeon and Carwyn Jones working together is an example of two governments working together in common cause; not of the SNP and Labour being best mates.<br />
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Secondly, it suggests that the coalitions that are forced on councils show that the SNP and Labour love each other. That's simply not true. In the councils I have knowledge of they dislike each other and hate working together but do it because they have to and the distrust creates a stagnant culture where nothing can happen. Our councils would be better served with minority administrations trying to make it work and needing support from all of their opposition.<br />
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Here's another thing to consider - politics needs politicians to oppose each other if it's to do any good. The UK's terrorism legislation down the decades is a sparkling example of how bad law is created by a lack of opposition. Only by having that constructive conflict do we ever move forward, enjoy new ideas and create new futures - there's almost a need to have a statutory curmudgeon so people remember there's an opposing view. If politicians stop debating they are no longer politicians, if they seek coalitions four years ahead of the election they are clearly unable to engage in the debate or afraid of it or disconnected from it.<br />
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I appreciate it's hard if you've been an MEP and you're facing the end because of Brexit and you want to do something or be relevant at least once before you have to put on a fringe show at the Edinburgh Festival but piss off, the people will make their choices, individually and collectively, and that will be how we get a new government in 2021. Any politician on either side of the fence who suggests there shouldn't be a fence doesn't understand their job.<br />
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Politics is about people's lives, it's not a game, and deciding to shake hands on a result you want to fix four years ahead of the vote suggests your interests are about yourself and trying to get some newspaper coverage while you can. The careers of all MEPs from Scotland have a wee ticking clock beside them but that doesn't mean they have anything sensible to say. Here's a wee question - how naive do you have to be to think that Nicola Sturgeon and Carwyn Jones working together as First Ministers means that Sturgeon wants the advice of Anas Sarwar?<br />
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There's always going to be someone who wails "why can't they work together?" but it's opposing that makes politics work and any politician who says "why can't we work together?" either knows that they've lost the public debate or is too stupid to understand politics. We need the contrarians and the intellectuals who question, we need obstructionists and cleverclogs on all sides. We really don't need simpletons in politics.Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-76619047425639309742017-07-24T19:32:00.002+01:002017-07-24T19:32:36.565+01:00NHS much healthier under the SNP than it ever was under Labour<b>Labour and the NHS campaign</b> <br />
Labour, being the mendacious and unprincipled bunch of self-seeking wannabes we all know of old (I love them really), has been talking a lot recently about <a href="http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/campaigns/entry/save-our-nhs" target="_blank">'saving' the NHS from the SNP</a>. I remembered, though, that all was not sweetness and light in the NHS while Labour was in power so I had a wee look back to see what things were like -<br />
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<b>Outcomes</b><br />
Death rates in the <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Health/TrendHealthOutcome/Results/tables2017" target="_blank">15-44 age group have dropped</a> from 118 per 100,000 people in Labour's last year in power to 101 per hundred thousand in 2015 - a 14% improvement.<br />
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<a href="http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Heart-Disease/Publications/data-tables2017.asp?id=1855#1855" target="_blank">Coronary heart disease</a> incidences dropped from 498 to 362 per 100,000 over the same period and the death rate from CHD dropped from 302 to 220 - something is clearly going very right in coronary care.<br />
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<a href="http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Cancer/Publications/data-tables2017.asp?id=1902#1902" target="_blank">Cancer diagnoses</a> in men have dropped from 985 to 979 per 100,000 over those years but gone up in women from 713 to 757. The death rate from cancer in both sexes has dropped, though - 434 down to 391 in men and 287 down to 272 in women. Seems cancer outcomes are heading in the right direction, too.<br />
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<b>Staffing</b><br />
One of the reasons behind the improved outcomes <a href="http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Workforce/Publications/data-tables2017.asp?id=1922#1922" target="_blank">might be the improved staffing</a>. In 2006 NHS Scotland had 9,600 medical staff and this year it had 12,326. Over the same period dental staff went up from 561 to 625, nursing and midwifery staff from 56,783 to 59,799, allied health professionals from 8,842 to 11,552 and support staff from 12,645 to 13,717. Total NHS Scotland staff increased from 127,062 in 2006 to 139,431 this year - and that at a time of shrinking Scottish budgets.<br />
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<b>Prescriptions</b><br />
Getting your medicine to make you better used to cost you money. Under Labour it was £6.85 <i>for each medicine</i> (I think that's about £8.50 in today's prices but you'd have to check) so if Mrs Shuggie McDufflecoat had to get 3 prescription items she'd be paying £20.55 in 2006 (£25.50 today, maybe) but the SNP Scottish Government abolished the charges and now you don't get taxed for being sick. Interestingly, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/historic_figures/bevan_aneurin.shtml" target="_blank">Nye Bevan<b> </b>resigned from government</a> in protest over prescription charges.<br />
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<b>Paying the bills</b> <br />
Scotland's health spending <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/12/6610/7" target="_blank">now is £13,168.2 million</a> and it was <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2006/09/05131713/10" target="_blank">£9,499 million in Labour's last year</a> in power. I reckon the figure from Labour's time would come to around £11bn in today's money so that's increased investment of about £2 billion from the SNP Scottish Government. To be fair, though, sport and food standards have been added to the health bill which accounts for a bit short of £58m. Per head of population, health spending was £1,847 under Labour and is £2,487 now.<br />
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<b>And so</b><br />
Scotland's NHS isn't perfect but it's in pretty good nick and it's in better shape than it was when Labour was in power. If you get a nyaff at your door telling you Labour will save the NHS, provide them with a flea for their ear and send them on their way - the very cheek of them! Tell them the SNP is doing a simply splendid job and should carry on with it.Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-16900482747645577482017-06-29T22:42:00.001+01:002017-06-29T22:42:39.321+01:00When ye lay doon wi the De'il...Yesterday (Wednesday) there was a division on the Queen's Speech (translation from Westminsterese - a vote on the Government's legislative programme) on getting rid of the pay cap on public sector workers. It was good, sensible stuff, good opposition from Corbyn's team before they went back to fighting each other today (sacked for rebelling against Corbyn - that irony meter is going to have your eye out) and it nearly worked. Theresa May's Government squeaked a win by 14 votes, including her 12 newbies from Scotland.<br />
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Twelve new Tory MPs in seats taken from the SNP thanks, in part, to <a href="https://stv.tv/news/politics/1390070-unionist-parties-working-against-snp-in-key-seats/" target="_blank">a dodgy agreement between Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems</a> that the SNP was the enemy in this election. Incredibly, the one Labour MP at the time was reported in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/19/tory-and-snp-positions-in-scotland-suggest-surge-in-tactical-voting" target="_blank">Labour in-house magazine "The Granwad"</a> thusly -<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Guardian Text Egyptian Web", Georgia, serif; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;">Labour’s sole surviving MP, Ian Murray, said he supported tactical voting to defeat the SNP</span></blockquote>
Kez Dugdale, leader of the Scottish branch of Labour, <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/807559/Kezia-Dugdale-Nicola-Sturgeon-SNP-Scottish-independence-poll-Ruth-Davidson" target="_blank">said something similar, too</a>, encouraging people to vote Labour where they were second place to the SNP and Tory where they were in second place. The glorious revolution was <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/15354002.Unspun__the_political_diary/" target="_blank">celebrated at Labour HQ as they cheered Tory victories</a> in Scotland.<br />
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Imagine if they had done the reverse and encouraged the electorate to vote tactically to defeat the Tories rather than the SNP, imagine if Labour and the Lib Dems had done a deal with the SNP to beat the Tories instead of the SNP - 12 votes away from the Tory Government and 12 more votes for the progressive side of the chamber; the 14 of a majority overturned.<br />
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Ach weel, Labour, when ye lay doon wi the De'il mind ye micht rise in the De'ils hoose...Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-80287553553901133172017-06-21T03:44:00.003+01:002017-06-21T03:44:54.121+01:00Did Cameron Save May's Bacon?<b>EVEL raises its head</b><br />
David Cameron may have saved Theresa May's Government. I'd been wondering why she was so fixated on getting a deal with the DUP that gave her confidence and supply but no other support and why she wasn't looking around for other options. It made even less sense when you consider John Major's intervention noting that the DUP wouldn't bring her down while Corbyn was leading Labour - he knows a thing or two about tight majorities and how the DUP votes. It might well be, though, that she doesn't need any other options, just support in any confidence motion and votes to get her Money Bills through, and she needs that tied up for any future sticky situation. She might be in that strange situation and saved from oblivion thanks to a change that David Cameron brought in when he was Prime Minister.<br />
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Cameron needed to quiet his backbenchers who were harrumphing over more powers being vested in Holyrood and he introduced English Votes for English Laws (EVEL) which, in essence, stops Scots MPs, Welsh MPs and Northern Ireland MPs from voting on matters which only affect England. Specifically, the Speaker issues a certificate on each piece of legislation that determines whether EVEL applies and, where it does apply, MPs who don't represent an English seat can't vote on it (there is a very simple explanation of the process on the UK Parliament website <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/laws/bills/public/english-votes-for-english-laws/" target="_blank">here</a> if you fancy reading a bit about it). This means that for great wodges of legislation the Prime Minister only needs a majority of English MPs to support it and she has <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2017/results/england" target="_blank">a majority of 61</a> among English MPs and that's a working majority. Where the EVEL certification is England and Wales she's in a tighter spot because the opposition has a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2017/results/wales" target="_blank">24 seat majority</a> over the Tories in Wales - but that still leaves her with a 37 seat majority for England and Wales.<br />
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<b>Confidence, supply and reserved powers</b><br />
That means that Theresa May needs cover for matters which won't be EVEL certified - the most important of which are votes of confidence and getting budgets passed (without cover here her Government is always vulnerable - emptied if it loses a confidence motion and unable to function properly if it can't pass a budget) so the DUP covers her back on those. That leaves the items in Schedule 5 of the Scotland Act 1998 which <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/contents" target="_blank">you can see here</a> or get a rough idea of from the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/devolution-settlement-scotland" target="_blank">Scotland Office guidance from 2013</a> (but note that it hasn't been updates as powers transferred to Holyrood) or you can get an idea from<a href="http://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/12506.aspx" target="_blank"> the Scottish Parliament website</a> (which also needs a wee update as powers transfer). You get the general gist, though.<br />
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If you look through that list you'll see that Theresa May won't be worrying about much of it. Defence? The big issue is <b>Trident</b> and Labour is hand-in-glove with the Tories on this - Labour will vote to renew, and even made the commitment in the manifesto where it said "Labour supports the renewal of
the Trident nuclear deterrent."<br />
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<b>Immigration</b>? Remember Labour's immigration mug?<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCsjXJSgWr2QM41fNEHnJDz9gwwpV9NNGHCY3mh7nm-t7pAQLstFiBKP89UkjxrmqDgwf56tyzusfihUECicxB5Ug1YiHSlkANVSFOu44el-OmIQ7Tj3MFDw_C8a1Da_73z4tHUdbzT5p7/s1600/immigration-mug-labour.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="290" data-original-width="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCsjXJSgWr2QM41fNEHnJDz9gwwpV9NNGHCY3mh7nm-t7pAQLstFiBKP89UkjxrmqDgwf56tyzusfihUECicxB5Ug1YiHSlkANVSFOu44el-OmIQ7Tj3MFDw_C8a1Da_73z4tHUdbzT5p7/s1600/immigration-mug-labour.jpg" /></a></div>
The manifesto has moved a little from a blunt closing of the gates but it's still in territory the Tories will feel comfortable with. It's not so much "do this differently" as "we could do with different paint on the walls".<br />
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<b>The constitution </b>(they keep it unwritten, you know, much better that way) - on Scotland being able to take a decision on its constitutional direction of travel, Labour and Tories are dancing to the same tune, as the recent election showed. On <b>Brexit</b> there is less difference between the positions of Labour and the Tories than there is considered thought in Boris Johnson's impromptu musings.<br />
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<b>Foreign policy</b>? Long gone are the days when Labour ever aspired to an ethical foreign policy - the manifesto mentions it four times - three on page 116 where it says, repeatedly, that foreign policy should be guided by good intentions and once on page 122 where it says the same thing. It's a conversation that goes "What's our policy on bad things?" " We're against them." "What about good things?" "We're for them." In actual debate, though, you can't spot any real divergence between Labour and the Tories on foreign policy.<br />
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<b>Welfare benefits </b>is one area you would imagine there would be massive differences between Labour and the Tories but the evidence suggests otherwise - in July 2015 184 Labour MPs stood back and <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/these-are-the-184-labour-mps-who-didn-t-vote-against-the-tories-welfare-bill-10404831.html" target="_blank">refused to oppose the Tories' welfare cuts</a> - and claimed that <a href="http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/politics/ian-murray-defends-failure-to-vote-on-welfare-bill-1-3837248" target="_blank">it was fine because they'd said they were against it</a>. That wasn't the first time, either; two years earlier Labour MPs stood back and let the Tories and the Lib Dems <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/mar/24/labour-mps-abstain-welfare-bill" target="_blank">change the law to avoid complying with a court order </a>to give benefits claimants money that was withheld from them <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/mar/15/dwp-law-change-jobseekers-poundland?INTCMP=SRCH" target="_blank">when they were sanctioned unfairly</a>. Earlier this year Labour Lords did the same thing on cuts to the benefits paid to disabled people, standing back and <a href="https://www.disabilitynewsservice.com/shabby-labour-fails-again-on-disability-rights-after-abstaining-on-pip-cuts-vote/" target="_blank">letting the Tories off the hook </a>while passing a motion that said "we disapprove".<br />
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<b>Nuclear energy</b>? Labour's manifesto has them supporting new nuclear power stations - just like the Tories. On <b>trade</b> the Labour manifesto mimics current Tory policy, on <b>employment</b> there's little in the Labour manifesto (the Tory manifesto actually offers more action on employment than the Labour one), on <b>broadcasting, consumer rights and data protection</b> there's no remarkable difference between them. They are, as the saying goes, like twa cheeks o the same bum!<br />
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<b>Labour saves the Tories</b><br />
So Labour will prop up the Tories on the issues which won't be EVEL certified, the Tories have a working majority on any issues which will get EVEL certified and all that's left to cover is confidence and supply. Enter the DUP...<br />
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I don't know whether David Cameron likes Theresa May or what she's doing in government but I think he saved her bacon when he changed the rules and the irony is that it's Labour that will be saving the Tory Government where EVEL doesn't. If you're waiting for another General Election you may be waiting for quite some time, unfortunately, and you may have to watch the Tories tap-dance through a whole parliament while Labour has to try to maintain discipline. The wonders of an unwritten constitution, eh? This may be excruciating.Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-35743937970143377362017-05-16T03:46:00.001+01:002017-05-16T03:46:53.537+01:00Orwell and a Tory<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ruth Davidson, the leader of the Tories in Scotland, made a speech about Orwell (you can read <a href="http://www.scottishconservatives.com/2017/05/ruth-nationalism-should-not-be-confused-with-patriotism/" target="_blank">the whole thing on the Tory website</a> if you so desire but you don't have to) and what struck me is that no-one picked her up on what Orwell actually said. The <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39928846" target="_blank">BBC covered it with a bit of a whizz-bang</a> and quoted her saying</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #404040; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.375; margin-top: 18px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"Nationalism is about power, and its obsessive pursuit, and the dichotomisation of a population into the authentic and the inauthentic.<br />"Here in the second decade of the 20th century, despite his [George Orwell] efforts, nationalism is still confused with patriotism.<br />"That is because, too often, there are political movements that deliberately ensure that is the case."</span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">She was referring to Orwell's essay <a href="http://orwell.ru/library/essays/nationalism/english/e_nat" target="_blank"><i>Notes on Nationalism</i> </a>which is dragged up often by politicians trying to do in the SNP. You can almost hear them say "Aha! Orwell said this and he wrote 1984!" and they frequently seem very pleased with themselves. Firstly, here's a wee list of some of the 'nationalisms' that Orwell was critiquing - </span><br />
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<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">British Toryism</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">White supremacism</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Semitism</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Anti-semitism</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Communism</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Catholicism</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Scottish nationalism</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">British jingoism</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Neo-Toryism</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Zionism</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Pacifism</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Class feeling</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Colour feeling (almost the antithesis of white supremacy)</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The feeling that you belong to the Proletariat</span></li>
</ul>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Orwell was writing while the Second World War was still being fought - the essay was first published in the month that Germany surrendered. He gave an indication of some of the thinking that he was criticising in a section that referred to that war - </span></div>
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<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="text-indent: 2.5em;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If one harbours anywhere in one's mind a nationalistic loyalty or hatred, certain facts, although in a sense known to be true, are inadmissible. Here are just a few examples. I list below five types of nationalist, and against each I append a fact which it is impossible for that type of nationalist to accept, even in his secret thoughts:<br /><span class="s_cp" style="letter-spacing: 0.15em;">BRITISH TORY</span>: Britain will come out of this war with reduced power and prestige.<br /><span class="s_cp" style="letter-spacing: 0.15em;">COMMUNIST</span>: If she had not been aided by Britain and America, Russia would have been defeated by Germany.<br /><span class="s_cp" style="letter-spacing: 0.15em;">IRISH NATIONALIST</span>: Eire can only remain independent because of British protection.<br /><span class="s_cp" style="letter-spacing: 0.15em;">TROTSKYIST</span>: The Stalin regime is accepted by the Russian masses.<br /><span class="s_cp" style="letter-spacing: 0.15em;">PACIFIST</span>: Those who ‘abjure’ violence can only do so because others are committing violence on their behalf.</span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">He also said -</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: white; text-align: justify; text-indent: 40px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In England, if one simply considers the number of people involved, it is probable that the dominant form of nationalism is old-fashioned British jingoism.</span></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> That sentence, though, if read in its place in the essay, doesn't mean what it seems to mean when it's taken out and laid on its own like that. It's important to get things in context, just as Ms Davidson failed to do in her speech when she said</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However, all those caveats aside, the truth is that the nationalist politics identified by Orwell – the attempt to classify and label human beings into groups marked “good” and “bad” – has become a key part of our political practice in Scotland.</span></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Someone less generous than me might ask whether she means good like the family making a tax credit claim that only contains two children and bad like the family doing the same that has three (unless the third is as a result of rape in which case they can climb back into the good group after filling in an eight page form). Is it the disabled who are being told they are fit for work who are bad and millionaires paying less now in capital gains tax who are good? Are immigrants bad but people stashing their money in tax havens good?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I don't know what Orwell would have made of modern politics or of the constitutional debates and it doesn't really matter, <i>Notes on Nationalism</i> is an essay written at the end of a global conflict at a time when the atrocities committed during that conflict were just being discovered. It was five years before the United Nations was created and six years before the fledgling trade agreements from which the EU grew. Orwell had been an anarchist, a socialist, a combatant on the Republican side in the war against Franco before working for the BBC creating propaganda during the Second World War. His essay is a decent old read, but it is an old read and it doesn't say that nationalism is bad and unionism is good - he says that unthinking and amoral judging of groups of other people is wrong and that politics should be a thinking past-time. This is the final paragraph of the essay and is worth reading - </span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; text-align: justify; text-indent: 40px;">The reason for the rise and spread of nationalism is far too big a question to be raised here. It is enough to say that, in the forms in which it appears among English intellectuals, it is a distorted reflection of the frightful battles actually happening in the external world, and that its worst follies have been made possible by the breakdown of patriotism and religious belief. If one follows up this train of thought, one is in danger of being led into a species of Conservatism, or into political quietism. It can be plausibly argued, for instance — it is even possibly true — that patriotism is an inoculation against nationalism, that monarchy is a guard against dictatorship, and that organised religion is a guard against superstition. Or again, it can be argued that no unbiased outlook is possible, that all creeds and causes involve the same lies, follies, and barbarities; and this is often advanced as a reason for keeping out of politics altogether. I do not accept this argument, if only because in the modern world no one describable as an intellectual can keep out of politics in the sense of not caring about them. I think one must engage in politics — using the word in a wide sense — and that one must have preferences: that is, one must recognise that some causes are objectively better than others, even if they are advanced by equally bad means. As for the nationalistic loves and hatreds that I have spoken of, they are part of the make-up of most of us, whether we like it or not. Whether it is possible to get rid of them I do not know, but I do believe that it is possible to struggle against them, and that this is essentially a </span><i style="background-color: white; text-align: justify; text-indent: 40px;">moral</i><span style="background-color: white; text-align: justify; text-indent: 40px;"> effort. It is a question first of all of discovering what one really is, what one's own feelings really are, and then of making allowance for the inevitable bias. If you hate and fear Russia, if you are jealous of the wealth and power of America, if you despise Jews, if you have a sentiment of inferiority towards the British ruling class, you cannot get rid of those feelings simply by taking thought. But you can at least recognise that you have them, and prevent them from contaminating your mental processes. The emotional urges which are inescapable, and are perhaps even necessary to political action, should be able to exist side by side with an acceptance of reality. But this, I repeat, needs a </span><i style="background-color: white; text-align: justify; text-indent: 40px;">moral</i><span style="background-color: white; text-align: justify; text-indent: 40px;"> effort, and contemporary English literature, so far as it is alive at all to the major issues of our time, shows how few of us are prepared to make it.</span></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It's a point of view, and an interesting one, but it's not the opinion that unionists would have you think he espoused.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Never trust a Tory - they're all bad ...</span>Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-19595640370625672622016-10-06T16:08:00.001+01:002016-10-06T16:08:54.269+01:00Labour's train of thought is off the rails<span style="font-family: inherit;">Here's a thing - at First Minister's Questions in Holyrood today, Kezia Dugdale (Labour)(Lothian list)(Leader) <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAIiT7wylxQ&feature=youtu.be" target="_blank">claimed that a third of all rail routes in Scotland </a>have services that are late more often than not. Later, Neil Bibby (Labour)(West of Scotland list)(Transport and Town Centres) tweeted that it was a third of all trains.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">That table comes from Scotrail's monitoring of its own performance and <a href="https://www.scotrail.co.uk/sites/default/files/assets/download_ct/monthly-performance-results-web-upload-p1617-06.pdf" target="_blank">can be found here</a>. Let's first knock Mr Bibby off track - that's a list of stations, not trains. To think that a third of stations equates to a third of trains means that Labour's transport wallah thinks that all stations in Scotland are as busy as all the others. It means he thinks that Arbroath is as busy as Glasgow Central and Balloch as busy as Edinburgh Waverley - only an eejit would believe that.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Assuming that El Bibster simply mistweeted and meant to ape his boss, let's see about Kezia's take. She said it was a third of all routes and you could see that that's a possibility but I spotted that Arbroath is the worst performing station and, since I come from Dundee, I know a little about the railway up that way and any train that stops at Arbroath also stops at Carnoustie which is also in the third getting less than 50% so that shrinks the number of routes by one. Over on the west coast Glasgow High Street is listed but trains travelling through GHS serve Helensburgh Central, Balloch, Milngavie, Dalmuir, Springburn and Cumbernauld which are all also listed as being less than 50%. The number of stations doesn't represent the number of trains or the number of routes.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Besides which, not all of Scotland's stations are listed (although Newcastle is) so there's no way of knowing how many services are affected by looking at those figures - Labour might have been better off if they'd looked up t<a href="http://www.networkrail.co.uk/aspx/3828.aspx" target="_blank">he National Timetable</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">That's not all - you'll notice that those figures have a train being late if it it gets into the station more than 59 seconds after the time it was meant to. 59 seconds! Seems quite stringent and it turns out it is - <a href="http://www.networkrail.co.uk/about/performance/" target="_blank">Network Rail uses the European standard definition </a>of more than five minutes for commuter trains and ten minutes for longer distance. You can see on that chart that the punctuality of ScotRail is currently at 90.6% against an England and Wales score of 87.4%. It seems ScotRail is holding itself to a higher standard when measuring punctuality and it gets pelters from Labour for trying.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Oh what a tangled web they weave when first they try to score cheap political points and get easy newspaper headlines - or something like that. Labour is truly appalling at opposition, truly teeth-grindingly awful.</span>Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-87563133852934756042016-10-05T04:26:00.000+01:002016-10-05T04:27:45.124+01:00Benefit Scroungers<div class="tr_bq">
<b>Peter Chapman MSP</b></div>
<div class="tr_bq">
Browsing through Holyrood's register of interests, I came across <a href="http://www.parliament.scot/msps/currentmsps/99161.aspx" target="_blank">Peter Chapman MSP.</a> </div>
<br />
There are these four farms listed under heritable property -<br />
<blockquote style="background-color: white; clear: right; padding: 0px 0px 10px;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span id="ROIUserControl1_ctl06_lblMemberInteretDescription" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Until 14 July 2016 I owned a 50% share of a farm in Aberdeenshire with a total market value of between £400,001 and £500,000. The property yielded a gross annual income of between £40,001 and £50,000. [Amended interest 05 September 2016, Ceased interest 05 September 2016]</span> </span><span style="background-color: transparent;"> </span></blockquote>
<blockquote style="background-color: white; clear: right; padding: 0px 0px 10px;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span id="ROIUserControl1_ctl07_lblMemberInteretDescription" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Until 14 July 2016 I owned a 50% share of a farm in Aberdeenshire with a total market value of between £600,001 and £700,000. The property yielded a gross annual income of between £80,001 and £90,000. [Amended interest 05 September 2016, Ceased interest 05 September 2016]</span> </span></blockquote>
<blockquote style="background-color: white; clear: right; padding: 0px 0px 10px;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span id="ROIUserControl1_ctl08_lblMemberInteretDescription" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Until 14 July 2016 I owned a 50% share of a farm in Aberdeenshire with a total market value of between £1,000,001 and £1,100,000. The property yielded a gross annual income of between £80,001 and £90,000. [Amended interest 05 September 2016, Ceased interest 05 September 2016]</span> </span><span style="background-color: transparent;"> </span></blockquote>
<blockquote style="background-color: white; clear: right; padding: 0px 0px 10px;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span id="ROIUserControl1_ctl09_lblMemberInteretDescription" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Until 14 July 2016 I owned a 50% share of a farm in Aberdeenshire with a total market value of between £400,001 and £500,000. The property yielded a gross annual income of between £40,001 and £50,000. [Amended interest 05 September 2016, Ceased interest 05 September 2016]</span> </span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Seems a bit of a thing that; selling four farms in one day - surprising that no newspaper picked that story up, too; MSP sells four farms in one day - especially given that the market value is £2.4m to £2.8m and he managed to get the register amended on the day that the interest ceased. It's possible to transfer your interests to another person and change the register because there's nothing in <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2006/12/pdfs/asp_20060012_en.pdf" target="_blank">the legislation</a> that says you have to declare your spouse's interests, for example, so you just transfer title and the £240k to £280k annual income from it to your wife and say no more about it. Or you could transfer ownership and the attendant income to a company you own and neaten it all up - a shorter listing in your register. Doing either would look like covering something up, though, and no politician wants to look like they're dodging the question, do they?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Anyway, that wasn't the important bit, it was just the bit that captured my attention. There was this bit just dangling there, trying to look casual, chewing on a matchstick, looking at its fingernails, you know the kind of thing - </span><br />
<blockquote style="background-color: white; clear: right; padding: 0px 0px 10px;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span id="ROIUserControl1_ctl00_lblInterestCategory" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Remuneration and related undertaking:</span> </strong></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span id="ROIUserControl1_ctl00_lblMemberInteretDescription" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">I am a partner of Peter Chapman and Co. (of South Redbog, Strichen, Fraserburgh, AB43 6RP), a farming partnership. I receive remuneration in the form of utilities for my home, which are paid by the partnership to a value of between £5,001 and £10,000 per annum. I also receive interest payments on my stake in the partnership of between £5,0001 and £10,000 per annum. I expect to spend 2 days per month in this role. [Amended interest 05 September 2016]</span> </span></blockquote>
<blockquote style="background-color: white; clear: right; padding: 0px 0px 10px;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span id="ROIUserControl1_ctl01_lblMemberInteretDescription" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Until 9 August 2016 I was a director of Aberdeen and Northern Marts (of Thainstone Centre, Inverurie, AB51 5XZ), a livestock auction mart. I received the equivalent of £3,000 per annum and spent 2 days per month in this role. [Amended interest 05 September 2016]</span> </span></blockquote>
<blockquote style="background-color: white; clear: right; padding: 0px 0px 10px;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span id="ROIUserControl1_ctl02_lblMemberInteretDescription" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">I am a director of Chapmans Chickens Ltd. (of South Redbog, Strichen, Fraserburgh, AB43 6RP), a poultry rearing company. Until 3 July 2016 I received £25,000 per annum and spent 2 days per month in this role. [Amended interest 05 September 2016]</span> </span></blockquote>
Now that's interesting because you can go to <a href="http://cap-payments.defra.gov.uk/" target="_blank">this DEFRA payments search page </a>and put in the postcode and it'll tell you about taxpayer payments to this farm under the CAP schemes - a total o<span style="font-family: inherit;">f <span style="background-color: white;">£101,669.44 last year and </span><span style="background-color: white;">£99,320.66 in 2014 (those are the only two years available) <a href="http://farmsubsidy.openspending.org/GB/recipient/GB496337/p-chapman-co/" target="_blank">This journalist-run website</a> (which doesn't seem to have been updated recently) indicates that about </span></span><span style="background-color: white; text-align: right;">€</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white;">900,000 was paid to this partnership between 2002 and 2008 it also shows Chapman Chickens (see that last bit above) gett<span style="font-family: inherit;">ing </span></span><span style="background-color: white; text-align: right;">€142,529 in 2012</span><span style="background-color: white;">. </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;">Now, it's a partnership so he doesn't trouser all that cash himself but I'm guessing that the other partner is probably </span><a href="https://uk.linkedin.com/in/peter-chapman-2873bb8b" style="font-family: inherit;" target="_blank">this other Peter Chapman</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"> who seems to have interests in the same companies.</span><br />
<br />
That other one in the middle there is <a href="http://www.anmarts.co.uk/About-ANM.cfm" target="_blank">a kind of cooperative</a> (and isn't it nice to know that a Tory MSP is interested in cooperatives?) that does the obvious (livestock auctions) but also has other interests -<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #8f8f8f; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , "lucida grande" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">The Group is committed to its core business of livestock marketing, but is also highly diversified with interests in the land market, non-agricultural auctions, events and the catering/hospitality industry.</span></blockquote>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If you go back to the DEFRA page and put that postcode in you'll find that it got a bit shy of £50k </span></span><span style="background-color: white;"> </span><span style="background-color: white;">in public subsidy </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;">in each of the past two years.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It's that chicken thing, though - </span></span><br />
<blockquote style="background-color: white; clear: right; padding: 0px 0px 10px;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span id="ROIUserControl1_ctl10_lblInterestCategory" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Interest in shares:</span> </strong></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span id="ROIUserControl1_ctl10_lblMemberInteretDescription" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Until 3 July 2016 I owned ordinary shares in Chapmans Chickens Ltd, a poultry rearing company, with a value of £36,450 which represented approximately 16% of the issued share capital. [Amended interest 05 September 2016, Ceased interest 05 September 2016]</span></span></blockquote>
<blockquote style="background-color: white; clear: right; padding: 0px 0px 10px;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span id="ROIUserControl1_ctl11_lblMemberInteretDescription" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">I own ordinary shares in Redbogs Renewables Ltd, a wind energy company, with a value of £350,000 which represents 7% of the issued share capital. [Amended interest 05 September 2016]</span> </span><span style="background-color: transparent;"> </span></blockquote>
<blockquote style="background-color: white; clear: right; padding: 0px 0px 10px;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span id="ROIUserControl1_ctl12_lblInterestCategory" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Voluntary:</span> </strong></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span id="ROIUserControl1_ctl12_lblMemberInteretDescription" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">I am a member of NFU Scotland.</span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></blockquote>
<blockquote style="background-color: white; clear: right; padding: 0px 0px 10px;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span id="ROIUserControl1_ctl13_lblMemberInteretDescription" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">I own 10 £1 shares in Chapman's Chickens, a poultry rearing company of Aberdeenshire. [Registered 05 September 2016]</span> </span></blockquote>
He's got rid of his shares so the value is down from £36,450 to £10 but it seems he remains a director of the company - that's an understanding and a half, especially since he got £25k last year for two days work a month. That's less work than I do!<br />
<br />
Then there's Redbogs Renewables with its two turbines generating a subsidy from the power companies. You can try to work it out for yourself by <a href="http://ref.org.uk/generators/view.php?rid=R00090SQSC&returnurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.co.uk%2F" target="_blank">getting the details of Redbogs</a> and looking at the House of <a href="http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN05870" target="_blank">Commons research paper</a> on renewable obligations.<br />
<br />
Anyway, the thing is that this MSP's business has sooked in a fair bit of public cash to bolster its earnings, which may explain why he <a href="https://www.peter-chapman.org.uk/news/minister-face-msps-over-cap-payment-delays" target="_blank">gets so anxious about subsidies</a> for farmers. What it doesn't explain is how that bit about his house works - how does he get between £5,001 and £10,000 of utilities paid for his house from the company? That's between £416.75 and £833.33 a month - what size is his house? Is he running a small factory there?<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Edward Mountain</b><br />
<a href="http://www.parliament.scot/msps/currentmsps/99129.aspx" target="_blank">Old Eddie here</a> is the 4th Baronet of Oare Manor and Brendon (Oare Manor is in Somerset and Brendon is in Devon) and his company also pays for the leccy at his hoose rather than fling him a few quid (given that these people own these companies <span style="font-family: inherit;">you'd think they'd get some coin out of it, no?) but it adds the insurance on as well that brings it up to between £35,001 and £40,000 a year or between £2,916.75 and £3,333.33 a month. Now I'm no expert but I reckon that's a wee bit expensive for your average house...</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="http://cap-payments.defra.gov.uk/Search.aspx" target="_blank">Delfur Farms got </a><span style="background-color: white;"><a href="http://cap-payments.defra.gov.uk/Search.aspx" target="_blank">£131,960.09</a> in 2015 and </span><span style="background-color: white;">£133,745.23 in 2014 (for some reason you have to search on the name of the company rather than the postcode for this one) and there are <a href="http://farmsubsidy.openspending.org/GB/recipient/GB474191/delfur-farms/" target="_blank">a couple</a> of <a href="http://farmsubsidy.openspending.org/GB/recipient/GB474192/delfur-farms/" target="_blank">entries</a> for it on the older site, too. He's <a href="https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/ZdDDEtxNQqpBYBPsLKm6g7Ibtlc/appointments" target="_blank">a busy lad</a> and s</span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white;">omeone <a href="https://soundcloud.com/tommymackay/mountain" target="_blank">wrote a song </a>about him but it's clear that this wholesome Tory chap whose family fortune came from <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=4t1RAQAAIAAJ&pg=PA182&lpg=PA182&dq=%22Gardner+Mountain%22+company&source=bl&ots=cIMfeUaRcZ&sig=aHHqddhYyFGNeSrcLp-xN3uztfo&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj7suHDxsLPAhWGK8AKHWXfAOoQ6AEISDAJ#v=onepage&q=%22Gardner%20Mountain%22%20company&f=false" target="_blank">screwing the insurance market</a> also takes a substantial wodge of cash from the public purse.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Burnett of Leys</b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;">He has a<a href="http://www.parliament.scot/msps/currentmsps/98353.aspx" target="_blank"> portfolio of interests well worth taking a look at </a>but he still found the time while managing them to claim nearly £25k <a href="http://cap-payments.defra.gov.uk/Search.aspx" target="_blank">from DEFRA</a> in 2014 and over £22k last year (search for Burnett and then look for Burnett of Leys). You'll also find that <a href="http://farmsubsidy.openspending.org/GB/recipient/GB480361/j-f-burnett-of-leys/" target="_blank">he's had </a>a <a href="http://farmsubsidy.openspending.org/GB/recipient/GB480362/j-f-burnett-of-leys/" target="_blank">pound or two</a> in t<a href="http://farmsubsidy.openspending.org/GB/recipient/GB480363/j-f-burnett-of-leys/" target="_blank">he past as</a> well. He at least pays his own gas bill, though.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white;">I haven't gone through the whole Tory group so there may be others (although, to the best of my knowledge, <a href="http://www.parliament.scot/msps/currentmsps/98385.aspx" target="_blank">RuDa hasn't claimed any CAP money</a>) but my point is this - Tories are delighted to have money paid from public funds so long as they're benefitting so when the debates on social security payments start in Holyrood, keep yer lugs open for these whizzers decrying the poor and the sick and the infirm. When they start questioning whether some family where no-one has a job is worth a few quid a week to survive on, maybe we should be asking them how they did with public subsidy in their 'time of need' and whether they ever had to wait until giro day to get the heating back on.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white;">Social Security benefits won't be easy for Holyrood - no dosh over and above what Westminster was paying and cuts coming down the line from the UK Government - but when some politicians are actually trying to get something done (and I anticipate those coming from every party) don't let these people who have had a fortune from public funds say that the poor are not worthy. There's going to be debate and there should be debate about how to serve the country well but if and when Tory MSPs get to their feet to bore the hell out of us with their social engineering theories that rely more on Darwin than on common human decency, let's tell them to get tae France and Freuchie and Farfar - and the same for any bawbag blawhards from other parties. If anyone's getting called a benefit scrounger, let's make sure we know who's taking most public cash.</span>Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-42167665661371224862016-08-12T17:27:00.000+01:002016-08-12T17:27:18.132+01:00The big boys want all the sweetiesThe <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/nicola-sturgeon-facing-calls-to-scrap-unfair-business-rates-1-4200934" target="_blank">Scottish Retail Consortium wants the Scottish Government to scrap the rates surcharge</a> on large businesses.<br />
<br />
The Scottish Retail Consortium doesn't actually exist, it's just a name that the <a href="http://www.brc.org.uk/brc_home.asp" target="_blank">British Retail Consortium</a> uses to pretend it's Scottish sometimes. The British Retail Consortium is just <a href="http://www.brc.org.uk/downloads/Retail_Membership_Information.pdf#page=8" target="_blank">the big retailers getting together</a> to try to get their own way (I've <a href="http://calumcashley.blogspot.co.uk/2011/05/business-of-business.html" target="_blank">pointed this out </a>before) and their Scottish address is<a href="https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/12+Southbridge,+Edinburgh/@55.9495764,-3.1872525,3a,75y,59.52h,90t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m4!1sy-J-IsXms-0CasXOiVBXSg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0x910a41a34d45abee!6m1!1e1" target="_blank"> this mailbox shop in Edinburgh</a>. They're quite willing to take all the services funded through business rates - like streetlighting, police, roads for their delivery vehicles and customers - but they don't want to pay for them.<br />
<br />
Unfortunately for this particular scare story about Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury's and Morrisons suffering terribly at the hands of the Scottish Government,<a href="https://home.kpmg.com/uk/en/home/media/press-releases/2016/08/solid-spending-in-defiance-of-consumer-surveys.html" target="_blank"> retail sales are going up</a> - according to a KPMG survey done for ... erm ... the British Retail Consortium. <a href="http://news.scotland.gov.uk/News/Scottish-retail-sales-grow-0-2-per-cent-27f6.aspx" target="_blank">They're up in Scotland</a>, too, just in case you were wondering.<br />
<br />
Mind how ye go!Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-63570428653354302052016-05-31T22:26:00.001+01:002016-05-31T22:27:13.161+01:00Schooling the Tories<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">A few days ago the ruler of the Tory hordes in Scotland (one Ruth Davidson, for who else could it be?) answered a charge of Tory poshness from a posh lawyer (Mr Worrier, forename Peat) in an odd manner. She tweeted "<a href="https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/735578178941550592" target="_blank">none of them went to Hutchies like you - maybe speak to Humza or Anas?</a>" - she was referring to Mr Worrier's schooling and the fact that the painfully upper class* Minister for Transport and the Islands also attended Hutcheson's Grammar School, as did the Labour MSP (and former deputy leader of its Scottish branch) Anas Sarwar. It should be noted that this school also processed Carol Smillie, John Buchan, Laura Keunssberg, James Maxton (yes, the Red Clydesider), Derry Irvine, Ken Bruce, Adair Turner and so on - the place has a lot to answer for!</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Hutchie, as those of us who have learned our place call it, <a href="http://www.hutchesons.org/Fees-and-Bursaries" target="_blank">charges £11,082 a year in the senior years</a> but £11,352 in earlier years for some reason. I've no idea why anybody sends their kids to private school (well, there are the contacts they make for life, the preference they get from people who think that the old school tie matters and so on and so forth; and that some parents consider such schools to offer a better education, but hey, groove with me here) and I don't know much about which private schools have swisher things than others (although I do remember, as a schoolboy, going with the St Saviour's team to cuff Glenalmond at the cross-country running and the scran afterwards was utterly fabulous - and entirely scoffed by us oiks before the posh kids were showered and changed out of their running gear - us scruff were less pernickity)** so I'm not really a judge of what makes a private school good or bad or indifferent or comical***. That said, I think that RuDa's point is "you're a posh boy, my troops haven't been to a posh school like wot you did,</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> so shut yer trap Worrier."</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I know you'll think less of me for it, but I didn't believe wee RuDa straight off and I thought I'd check whether her troops were entirely Hutchie-free. I feel a burning shame for my lack of faith but it seems that it's true. Here's what I found (in alphabetical order; dunno is where my research assistant, Mr Google, failed to find any evidence of derring-do or matters nefarious) - </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Jeremy Balfour – <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en-GB&q=http://www.edinburghacademy.org.uk/&source=gmail&ust=1464808218044000&usg=AFQjCNFJ7E8bdAL6KxlTzi8VVlWac93uUg" href="http://www.edinburghacademy.org.uk/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Edinburgh Academy</a> fees are £13,248 per year (plus extras)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Miles Briggs – state school</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Alexander Burnett, 4<sup>th</sup> great grandson of Tsar Nicholas 1<sup>st</sup> and heir to the Leys Estate – <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en-GB&q=http://www.etoncollege.com/&source=gmail&ust=1464808218044000&usg=AFQjCNHf7jtThpW1wh_PwQO0IHujeIMlZA" href="http://www.etoncollege.com/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Eton</a> fees are £37,062 (plus extras) and <a href="http://www.etoncollege.com/provostdescription.aspx" target="_blank">the heid bummer is appointed by the Queen</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Donald Cameron, son of Cameron of Locheil – not clear where he went to school but it’s a family tradition to go to <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en-GB&q=http://www.harrowschool.org.uk/&source=gmail&ust=1464808218044000&usg=AFQjCNGTDnco-SwcckzYqr1vnQIOd1Xawg" href="http://www.harrowschool.org.uk/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Harrow</a> where fees are £36,150</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Jackson Carlaw – <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en-GB&q=http://www.theglasgowacademy.org.uk/&source=gmail&ust=1464808218044000&usg=AFQjCNEOZCHu4g6bcPP3Fn7gB0aSTOkS6Q" href="http://www.theglasgowacademy.org.uk/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Glasgow Academy</a> fees are £11,063</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Finlay Carson – state school</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Peter Chapman – dunno</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Maurice Corry - dunno</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Ruth Davidson – state school</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Murdo Fraser – state school</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Maurice Golden – dunno</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Jamie Greene – state school</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Rachael Hamilton – dunno</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Alison Harris – dunno</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Alex Johnstone – state school</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Liam Kerr – dunno</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">John Lamont – state school</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Gordon Lindhurst – dunno</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Dean Lockhart – state school</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Margaret Mitchell – state school</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Edward Mountain, 4<sup>th</sup> Baronet of Oare Manor and Brendon (Devon) – dunno</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Oliver Mundell – state school</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Douglas Ross – dunno</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">John Scott (good guy) – <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en-GB&q=https://www.gwc.org.uk/&source=gmail&ust=1464808218044000&usg=AFQjCNHzefJpK24z0RF6wH9mEvFiMysc8A" href="https://www.gwc.org.uk/" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">George Watson’s</a> fees are £10,983</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Graham Simpson – dunno</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Liz Smith – like John Scott, she attended George Watson’s where fees are £10,983</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Alexander Stewart – dunno</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Ross Thomson – state school</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Adam Tomkins – state school</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Annie Wells – dunno</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Brian Whittle – state school</span></div>
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<br />
*he's not really<br />
** also, Fettes College had a hustings in 2010 when I was a candidate and the pupils were polite, well informed, thoughtful and prepared to consider other opinions. Also, they gave me a bottle of school claret for taking part.<br />
*** 30 words to a sentence? Really? Live a little.Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-35368701860234945472016-04-30T19:07:00.000+01:002016-04-30T19:07:08.218+01:00Two votes? Two votes you say?I thought I'd tell you how to use your regional list (second / Additional Member / what's this thing?) vote in the Scottish Parliament election to get the result you want if you're a supporter of independence. If you're not a supporter of independence don't vote, whatever you do don't vote.<br />
<br />
Your constituency (first / FPTP / traditional) vote should be for the SNP, of course; that goes without saying (don't ask why I'm saying it if it goes without saying - less of your troublemaking) and should be a tradition that you and all your family and friends should cleave to without question unless and until I change my mind. Your regional vote, though, should be your flight of fancy, your love at first bite, the jam on your piece, your secret, dirty delight - just vote for the party that you like the most - vote for whichever party you want to form the next Scottish Government (or whoever you feel sorry for or the party you actually support even though it's got no chance of taking power or for the party punting policies you believe in) and don't stress over it.<br />
<br />
Except, except, except ...<br />
<br />
Some people, who are, to all appearances, sensible and otherwise sober folks are considering voting Green with their regional vote. That's excellent if you like that kind of thing - knock yersel oot; fill yer boots; light a candle at both ends and stick an organic sparkler in the middle. Make sure you know what you're doing, though. First things third, understand the system; I give you <a href="http://www.cutbot.net/" target="_blank">Cutbot</a> which is run by James Mackenzie (one time media director for the Greens in Parliament) and Aaron Crane whom I dinna ken. Cutbot has created <a href="http://vote.cutbot.net/forecast/be8599e8" target="_blank">a seat predictor </a>that shows the <a href="http://vote.cutbot.net/forecast/be8599e8/regions" target="_blank">working figures</a> on the regional lists (I haven't read the methodology, I just trust James to get it right) and lets you fiddle about with them - marvellous fun. Those working figures are what you need to look at to see how to affect the outcome of the election.<br />
<br />
Ignore the 8th divisor and allocation - that's something that political anoraks like me find interesting; it's what would happen if there was an extra seat in each region. What you want to know is what it would take to change the last seat in each region to an independence supporting party (that's the first seat you can change and it works backwards up the table). To work that out, multiply the difference between the allocation figure of the winner of the last seat and the next biggest allocation figure by the divisor of the runner-up and you can see how many extra votes are needed. Or you can just fiddle about with the numbers you put into the thing and see what happens.<br />
<br />
Here's what I saw when I last looked at it (29th of April, 2016) -<br />
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Central Scotland region - SNP wins the last seat so you don't want to change it, you want to reinforce it and no other indy party has a regional seat so indy supporters should vote SNP on the list to make sure it happens - Greens and RISE supporters should vote SNP on the list.<br />
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Glasgow region - Patrick Harvie is safely elected on the third round and no other indy supporter comes in on the regional vote. For the SNP to beat Labour to the last seat needs us to get 27,911 extra votes, the Greens need a few hundred - a wee bit cheese would help them across the line.<br />
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Highlands and Islands region - the SNP needs 2,359 votes to take that last seat from Labour, the Greens would need 4,083<br />
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In Lothian, RISE is closest, needing just over 13,000 extra votes compared to the nearly 17,000 for the Greens and the 69,000 for the SNP. In Mid Scotland and Fife, RISE is closest again. In the North East it's RISE again. In South of Scotland it's the Greens. In the West of Scotland it's RISE.<br />
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So you know what to do now, yeah? Except on the last poll all those regions were different and on the next poll they'll be different again. Also, sometimes it's not an indy party that's closest and that makes the gap harder to close because you have to beat two. Also, change the votes on the last seat and you change the seats further up the chain - sometimes all you do is change the order in which the seats are won, not how many seats each party gets. Also - look at how many votes have to change to make a difference in most cases; thousands of people, thousands of votes.<br />
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Then there's the thing that it's based on polls and they're not always right; they didn't get 2007 or 2011 right and they got 2015 howlingly wrong - they might be wrong now. Fiddle about with Cutbot's model; change the numbers, see what happens when you move a few percentage points. In particular, shift votes between the unionist parties and you'll see that the effect of indy voting can change without indy voters changing their minds. You'll also discover that if every spare SNP and Green vote on the regional list went to RISE there would be a lot more pro-indy MSPs - if you get everyone who's adding spare votes switches but no-one who's in the active vote category does (because that would lose pro-indy MSPs, of course).<br />
<br />
Here's something else - don't assume we're winning the constituencies all of the models I've seen assume that the SNP is winning every constituency between Thurso and Ulaanbaatar. I know we're at bizarre levels of support but winning seats doesn't come cheap and isn't guaranteed; a good incumbent, a crap SNP ground campaign, an unexpected event, a bad candidate, a daft comment at a hustings, something dropping from the media sky; each of them can change an election. There are eleven constituencies where I think that at least one of these conditions applies and I don't know all of the constituencies. So, ye know, if the SNP doesn't win those constituencies and we don't have the votes on the list we lose some MSPs but, hey, that's democracy.<br />
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Vote however the hell you want but know what you're doing. This isn't a referendum; it's not a choice of one side or the other; this is an election and you're voting for candidates and parties. You might like thinking about who would be First Minister- would you prefer Nicola Sturgeon or Patrick Harvie; Colin Fox or Kezia Dugdale; Willie Rennie or Ruth Davidson - and that's worth thinking about and so is who they would appoint to look after education, health, the polis, transport, and so on.<br />
<br />
Of course, if your constituency candidate or the top candidate on the list is a dribbling donkey then it doesn't really matter who they'd support for First Minister; you're not gonna vote for them and nor am I. Here's a radical idea - have a look at your constituency candidates and choose which one you think is best (I'm currently torn between Ash Denham and Kezia Dugdale) then vote for the sucker (they all think it's going to be fabulous and then they end up on the sub leg committee) - that should teach them. Once you've screwed a constituency candidate, why not ruin the lives of a few more on the list?<br />
<br />
You're voting for a slate on the list - one vote, many candidates - so you should have a look at the candidates on each list. Unfortunately, parties don't give you much information about the candidates on their lists so you might want to investigate these people but life is too short and the candidates are far too boring. Instead you have to fall back on the principle that these list candidate wallahs are servants of their party and treat them like that, voting for them on the understanding that they'll do whatever the party whips tell them to do so every MSP elected on the list strengthens the central power of each party.<br />
<br />
I'd love to see Colin Fox back in Parliament and I'd like to see people like Cat Boyd elected so the temptation to vote RISE is there but I like Jil Murphy and Irshad Ahmed and I think they'd both be good MSPs. I'll be voting SNP on the list as well as in the constituency - that's my flight of fancy.<br />
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Whatever you do and however you vote, though, don't try to game the election; you don't know what everyone else in your electoral region will do and you might end up working against what you want to do. Keep it simple, vote for who you want and don't stress it.Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-69926681343939863372016-02-17T15:35:00.000+00:002016-02-17T15:35:07.457+00:00Dancing with Labour's tax planLet's give Labour's tax policy another turn around the dance floor before we go for <a href="http://bygone.dundeecity.gov.uk/reminiscences/buster-stand">a buster</a> on the way home. It's a bit boring but worth looking at and you'll get a buster on the way home. Labour's cunning wheeze is to increase the tax rate of everyone in Scotland by 1% from 20% to 21% - a 5% rise in tax paid for people who only pay basic rate tax (1 being 5% of 20) but <a href="http://calumcashley.blogspot.co.uk/2016/02/labours-tax-rise-and-why-its-wrong-in.html">less of a percentage rise in the tax paid for those who pay the higher rate</a> of tax. To be fair to Labour there was some attempt to undo the damage done by giving people back £100 if they earn less than £20,000 (of course, that £100 would be taxed at Labour's new 21% rate so it would only be worth £79) so if it worked it would at least be less awful than it appears at first.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>'Independent' reports and the missing briefing</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
As the tax policy started falling apart in the days after it was launched we were pointed to an 'independent' <a href="http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/media/blog/scottish-labour-has-a-tax-policy-let-the-debate-commence/">report</a> supporting the policy but there were some problems; it didn't take into account the tax on the £100 or the fact that it would have to be claimed from councils and it had the £100 bung as being paid twice to a family with two £20k earners while the legendary Duncan Hothersall had access to the <a href="http://labourhame.com/penny-for-your-thoughts/#comment-133852">original briefing and said it was per household</a>. He actually posted the section of the briefing that said it was per household (and I should have screengrabbed that) but later deleted that bit of his posting. It's a pity; I'm sure I'm not the only one who'd like to have a wee look through the whole briefing.<br />
<br />
I'd like to see, for example, how Labour judges between the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/498770/Dec15_effectsIllustrativechanges_bulletin_v2.pdf">HMRC estimate</a> of what a 1% increase in Scottish tax would bring in and <a href="http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Devolved-taxes-forecast.pdf">the Office of Budget Responsibility estimate</a> because there's a £15m difference. I'd also have liked to have seen how Labour intended to reimburse councils for handing out the cash - how far in arrears?<br />
<br />
Before thinking about any of that, though, have a look at the biography of the guy who wrote the 'independent' report, <a href="http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/team/torsten-bell/">Torsten Bell</a>, as it's written on the Resolution Foundation website -<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 14.6667px; line-height: 1.38; white-space: pre-wrap;">Torsten joined the Foundation in September 2015 as Director. Prior to this, Torsten was Director of Policy for the Labour Party and worked in the Treasury, both as a special adviser and a civil servant.</span></blockquote>
So you have a guy who left his employment as Director of Policy for the Labour Party in the same month as Corbyn became leader; joined a t<a href="http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/team/">hink-tank headed up by Tory David Willetts</a> and 5 months later wrote a supposedly independent report backing Labour's plans. Leaving aside the question of how we've come to a stage where a former Director of Policy for Labour can join cause with<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1456725/Willetts-takes-two-pensions-Blair-to-task.html"> one of Thatcher's little helpers</a>, how can we possibly believe that a position paper he's written about Labour policy can be an independent analysis since he was writing Labour policy just a few months ago?<br />
<br />
Labour then pointed us to <a href="http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/blog/entry/expert-group-ippr-confirms-labours-tax-plans-are-fair">"another expert group"</a> backing its plans but that's problematic, too - IPPR Scotland is <a href="http://www.ippr.org/people">Russell "Rusty" Gunson and some ad-hoc help from IPPR North</a> (that's North of England, of course, not North of the UK) and he is an old Labour hand. Like Kezia he was an NUS employee and a researcher for a Labour MSP before scaling giddier heights. On the plus side, though, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfZJ9_97HEg">here he is playing a set at the Barrowlands</a> - at least he followed a dream once.<br />
<br />
If you want to see how Russell arrived at his conclusion that Labour's plans are good <a href="http://www.ippr.org/files/blog/2016/ippr-scotland-tax-analysis-160208.xlsx">the analysis is here</a> - but don't expect much, it doesn't show any workings or explain assumptions. You might also wonder how IPPR Scotland has got to different amounts for Labour's plans and the Lib Dems' plans for the wealthiest people in the country, given that the plans are identical for people earning more than £20,000 a year.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>How the U-turn distorts the policy and the costs that don't add up</b><br />
<br />
How are we doing so far? Excellent. So here's some more fun; Labour's volte-face on the households/individuals thing about who gets the £100 kickback makes for some interesting scenarios. It means that a childless couple on combined earnings of £39,000 could be claiming a £200 handout while a couple with children with a household income from one earner of £20,001 gets zero. Even more ridiculous is the possibility that a couple with a grown-up child in the house could have a combined income of £59,000 and get £300 back while the couple with school-age children get nothing. The Broons, with five people in the household working, could be hauling in £99,000 a year and be getting £500 back and so on.<br />
<br />
Then there the numbers - they really don't add up now. The kickback thing was costed at £50m which was raised to £75m within hours as Labour realised that pensioners had been forgotten about. That included the money for the administration with the heroic assumption that it could be done for £1m because a far simpler scheme handing much less money is done for around £1m - leaving £74m to pay kickbacks.<br />
<br />
There are half a million pensioner taxpayers in Scotland <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/428961/Income_Tax_Liabilities_Statistics_May_2015.pdf">(page 26</a>) so at £100 each that's £50m a year. There are <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/400039/Table_3_11_13_rev.xls">573,000 working age taxpayers in Scotland that fall into the under £20,000 bracket</a> to qualify for the kickback so that's another £57.3m. That means that total payments would be £107.3m and that is £33.3m more than Labour's budgeted for the scheme - even if it can get the admin costs in under £1m. The figure for working age taxpayers comes from 2012-13 because that's the most recent figures the UK Government has published but wages haven't exactly rocketed since then.<br />
<br />
You can dig the figures out from the <a href="http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-400776">Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) </a>that show that about 40% of Scottish workers are paid £20,000 or less. Given that <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-35594746">the most recent ONS stats </a>say that the Scottish workforce is around 2.6 million strong, that would be about a million who are paid £20k or less but since we don't know from those figures how many are taxpayers we should stick with the just over half a million that the HMRC figures give us.<br />
<br />
So if HMRC is right and the take from <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/498770/Dec15_effectsIllustrativechanges_bulletin_v2.pdf">raising the tax rate by 1% in Scotland</a> is £475m and the kickback payments knock £107m out with the administration costs taking away another million quid (at least), we'd be left with £367m from the scheme and over a million people queueing up at their local council offices to claim their rebates. For comparison, Scottish income tax rakes in between £11.2bn and £11.5bn for the Exchequer (<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/428961/Income_Tax_Liabilities_Statistics_May_2015.pdf">page 66</a>) so we'd go through all that pain to raise less than a third of one per cent of what London currently soaks up from Scottish income tax payers.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>The scheme might not be legal</b><br />
<br />
I'm not done quite yet, though, because the legislation that Labour wants to use to pay the £100 is The Local Government in Scotland Act 2003, specifically <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2003/1/part/3">Section 20, the power to advance well-being</a>. Perhaps Labour's researchers should have read on to section 22, and subsection 4 in particular, which says<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;">The power under section 20 above shall not be exercised in a way which unreasonably duplicates anything which may or must be done in pursuance of a function, under any enactment (whenever passed or made), of a person other than the local authority.</span></blockquote>
Since tax credits, rebates and allowances are the preserve of the Treasury (at the moment - one waits with baited breath for the results of the Smith negotiations) and operate through HMRC councils can't give a tax rebate. Benefits come under the DWP (councils administer housing benefit and council tax benefits as agents of the DWP) so councils can't do it that way, either.<br />
<br />
There would need to be new legislation passed through Holyrood specifically to allow the payments to be made but that is straying into reserved territory and takes us into the detail of the powers of Davie Mundell under the Scotland Act - would he allow such legislation, created specifically to change a reserved decision, to stand? With Mr Osborne - a vindictive man at the best of times - at his back and raging about the impudence, would the Secretary of State not strike it down?<br />
<br />
Tax would be raised for every income tax payer in Scotland (rich people living off the fat of shares, stock options and inherited wealth aren't affected) and there would be no kickback. Scotland's median wage is around £27k so even if Labour's plan worked it would mean that people on less than the average wage would pay more tax than they would under Osborne's plans. £20,000 is only just over a quid more per hour than the living wage - it's hardly living the life of Reilly. If the kickback plan doesn't work - and it looks like it can't - then people on the minimum wage will be paying more tax and pensioners will be paying more tax. Labour will be asking the lowest-paid and pensioners to pay more than even George Osborne wants them to.<br />
<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>The system is broken - and so is Labour</b><br />
<br />
The moral of the story is that the tax system from Calman just doesn't work for us (you can decide for yourself whose fault that is), it can't be made to work in Scotland's interests. If you want a tax system that works you need control of the whole system. Of course, we could have taken that control with a Yes vote in September 2014 but I'm not going to bring that up - I wouldn't do such a thing.<br />
<br />
Watching Labour do politics these days is like seeing someone staring at an Escher drawing and calling it an architect's plan for a bungalow. There's really no need to be quite so incompetent.<br />
<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Busters</b><br />
<br />
Right then, get your coat, I'll buy you a buster, these shoes are kiling me, I don't know why I wear them to the dancing, I really don't, I swear I'll have bunions in the morning...Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-74279187705842476352016-02-04T20:25:00.003+00:002016-02-05T17:59:50.060+00:00Labour's tax rise and why it's wrong in very many ways<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">This week Labour promised a new dawn - an increase in Scottish income tax. Kezia Dugdale, who is a fine woman trying her hardest in a difficult situation (imagine trying to fashion ice sculptures from melting slush), announced that we'd all get hit with an extra 1% income tax to fund councils but that people who earn less than £20,000 would get a few quid back - one hundred green and crispy pound notes, if you will, or a horrible clanking of brass if you're too young to remember real money. Sounds like a decent plan where everybody is paying in a bit more to help out but there's a wee bit of help for those who might struggle. A good idea - except, except, except ...</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">There are a few problems - </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Taxable benefits</span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">From everyone's <a href="https://www.gov.uk/income-tax/taxfree-and-taxable-state-benefits">favourite Government department, HMRC, comes a list</a> of</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="line-height: 1.31579; margin-bottom: 0.75em; margin-top: 0.2em;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">The most common benefits that you pay Income Tax on are:</span><br />
<ul style="margin: 0.75em 0px; padding-left: 1em;">
<li style="background-color: white; color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 1.31579; margin: 0.25em 0px; padding-left: 0.3em;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">the State Pension</span></li>
</ul>
<ul style="margin: 0.75em 0px; padding-left: 1em;">
<li style="background-color: white; color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 1.31579; margin: 0.25em 0px; padding-left: 0.3em;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Jobseeker’s Allowance</span></li>
</ul>
<ul style="margin: 0.75em 0px; padding-left: 1em;">
<li style="background-color: white; color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 1.31579; margin: 0.25em 0px; padding-left: 0.3em;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Carer’s Allowance</span></li>
</ul>
<ul style="margin: 0.75em 0px; padding-left: 1em;">
<li style="background-color: white; color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 1.31579; margin: 0.25em 0px; padding-left: 0.3em;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Employment and Support Allowance (contribution based)</span></li>
</ul>
<ul style="margin: 0.75em 0px; padding-left: 1em;">
<li style="background-color: white; color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 1.31579; margin: 0.25em 0px; padding-left: 0.3em;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Incapacity Benefit (from the 29th week you get it)</span></li>
</ul>
<ul style="margin: 0.75em 0px; padding-left: 1em;">
<li style="background-color: white; color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 1.31579; margin: 0.25em 0px; padding-left: 0.3em;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Bereavement Allowance</span></li>
</ul>
<ul style="margin: 0.75em 0px; padding-left: 1em;">
<li style="background-color: white; color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 1.31579; margin: 0.25em 0px; padding-left: 0.3em;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">pensions paid by the Industrial Death Benefit scheme</span></li>
</ul>
<ul style="margin: 0.75em 0px; padding-left: 1em;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span>
<li style="background-color: white; color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 1.31579; margin: 0.25em 0px; padding-left: 0.3em;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Widowed Parent’s Allowance</span></li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
</span><br />
<div>
<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 25px;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The taxation personal allowance from April 5th will be £11,000 so if you were a carer working part-time and earning £11,000 from that job all of your tax allowance would be taken up. George Osborne currently takes 20% out of your </span><a href="https://www.gov.uk/carers-allowance/overview" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">£62.10 a week carers allowance</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> (£12.42 in tax per week or £645.84 a year) but Labour's plan would increase your tax to £13.04 per week or £678.08. Then Labour would give you £100 back but that would be taxable at 21% so you'd get £79 of it so you'd be £46.76 a year better off - a bit less than 90p a week. If your earnings are higher than this you'll get to a point where you're losing cash under Labour's scheme a lot sooner than you think (see below).</span></span></div>
<b id="docs-internal-guid-227d81ce-a960-5644-ad38-ead541fac467" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></b>
<br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Essentially, get any of these benefits while you're a taxpayer and Labour will be coming for a slice of them. Something further, though - some in-work benefits will be reduced when additional income is declared so some people might be left with just a tax rise.</span></span></div>
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></b>
<br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>It's taxable</b></span></span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As pointed out above, the £100 is taxable so it's only worth £79 if the tax rate is 21%. That means that the break-even point under Labour's plan would be when your pay is £18,900 - any more than that and you're losing money. Look -</span></span></div>
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></b>
<br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Your pay is £18,000, allowance £11,000, taxable £7,000. At 20% the tax is £1,400 so pay after tax (ignoring all other deductions) is £16,600. Increase the tax to 21% and add Kez's £100, taxable is £7,100 and tax is £1491 so pay after tax (ignoring all other deductions) is £16,609 - up £9 over the year.</span></span></div>
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></b>
<br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Your pay is £19,000, allowance £11,000, taxable £8,000. At 20% the tax is £1,600 so pay after tax (ignoring all other deductions) is £17,400. Increase the tax to 21% and add Kez's £100, taxable is £8,100 and tax is £1,701 so pay after tax (ignoring all other deductions) is £17,3<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">9</span>9 - you've lost £1.</span></span></div>
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></b>
<br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Your pay is £18,900, allowance £11,000, taxable £7,900. At 20% the tax is £1,580 so pay after tax (ignoring all other deductions) is £17,320. Increase the tax to 21% and add Kez's £100, taxable is £8,000 and tax is £1,680 so pay after tax (ignoring all other deductions) is £17,320 - exactly the same as if they hadn't messed around.</span></span></div>
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></b>
<br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Get paid any less than £18,900 you're gaining a few pennies a week, get paid any more and you're losing out. Let's be charitable and say that Kez's team just never realised that a payment from a Scottish administration would be taxed. Someone at Labour's magic £20k threshold would be about £11 down at £19,999 but if they earn an extra quid then they're £90 down because they're now being charged 21% tax but getting no government cash.</span></span></div>
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></b>
<br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>The tax rise is unfair</b></span></span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Not all income is taxed on the Scottish rate. Income from dividends and savings is exempt (in spite of the pretence that the UK and Scotland will have equal dibs on taxation there are parts of the system which will remain entirely in George Osborne's sweaty palm - See </span><a href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefingsAndFactsheets/S4/SB_14-14.pdf" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">page 7 of this</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">) so any lottery winner living off the fruits of investments and interest payments won't be affected by the increase; anyone who inherited wealth and has never had to work a day in their life will get away scot-free, and any company director who takes all or part of their remuneration as a dividend escapes it, too. Shuggie McDufflecoat pushing a street cleaning barrow eight hours a day gets hit for the whole whack, though, and Senga McDufflecoat operating a supermarket checkout in unsociable hours gets stung as well.</span></span></div>
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></b>
<br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">That's not all - even among those on PAYE it's not fair. Take a look at <a href="https://www.gov.uk/scottish-rate-income-tax">the </a></span><a href="https://www.gov.uk/scottish-rate-income-tax"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Scottish tax rates and the threshold for next year</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> (as they stand at the moment) and you'll see that there's a progression in what you pay - under £11,000 there's no income tax to pay, between £11,000 and £43,000 you pay 20%, up to £161,000 you pay 40% and over that you pay 45%.</span></span></div>
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></b>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So if you earn the <b>£20,000</b> that just excludes you from Labour's £100 giveaway (some nurses earn about this amount) the figures go like this: £11,000 tax-free so £9,000 to be taxed. At 20% tax that's £1,800, at 21% it's £1,890. Tax going up from £1,800 to £1,890 is <b>a 5% rise</b>.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>A teacher on £30k </b>- </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">£30,000 - £11,000 = £19,000 taxable. At 20% the tax is £3,800, at 21% it's £3,990 - a rise of £190 or <b>5% in tax payable</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>MSP on £59,089</b> - </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">First £11,000 tax-free. Next £32,000 @ 20% = £6,400 and @21% = £6,720. Next £16,089 @ 40% = £6,435.60 and @ 41% = £6,596.49. Total tax for an MSP on current system adds up to£12,835.60 and under Labour's proposal £13,316.49 - a rise of £480.89 which is 3.74653307987% - call it a <b>3.75% rise in tax payable.</b> </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Company director on £200,000 </b>-</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">First £43,000 is the same as an MSP on each tax rate; the next £118,000 @ 40% is £47,200 and @ 41% is £48,380; and the final £39,000 @ 45% is £17,550 and at 46% it's £17,940. Total tax under the current system is £71,150 and under Labour's new system £73,040 -<b> a rise of £1,890 or 2.66%</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So low earners would pay 5% more in tax than they do now, an MSP would only have a 3.75% increase in the tax they pay and the company director 2.66%. It has a progression but progressive it's not.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>The planned bureaucracy is chaotic</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The £100 is a tax rebate that can't be a tax rebate. Scottish Parliament doesn't have power to direct HMRC to pay a rebate (or to adjust thresholds or vary rates by different amounts) so Labour proposed using councils to pay the £100 - which makes it a government bung rather than a tax rebate which makes it taxable income which reduces its value to £79 (see above).</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: #0b0c0c; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Here's a thing, though, councils don't have access to HMRC records so they have no idea who is earning less than £20,000 but also paying tax. Payslips you say? No way of proving that that's the entire income; there are lots of other ways of turning a coin and quite a few people don't have payslips which would prove how much they earn on a regular basis in any case. P60? That's last year's earnings and doesn't show anything about this year's earnings - unless people are expected to wait a year for their £100.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">The payment of the £100 is not automatic, either, you would have to toddle down to your local council and claim it or, as one wag put it, "</span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Roll up roll up and win the chance to apply to your local council to get your own money back..."</span><span style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 1.2; white-space: pre-wrap;"> - nice and</span></span><span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 1.2; white-space: pre-wrap;"> easy for a parent working full time; or perhaps not ...</span></div>
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<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Not that we know exactly how the system supposed to work because Labour failed to tell us.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>The numbers don't add up</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">There aren't sources given for the numbers used by Labour to create this Jenga tower of a policy but they give a number or two here and there and they just don't add up.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">The original claim was that a 1% rise would raise £500 million and that £50 million would be needed to pay the £100 payments (that would be half a million payments a year) but in the hours after the policy was announced it was expanded by £25 million to encompass pensioners (that'll be 750,000 payments a year in <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">to<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">tal now</span></span>)<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">,</span> <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">s</span>o that's the tax take down to £425 million on Labour's figures.</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">The <a href="http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Devolved-taxes-forecast.pdf">Office for Budget <span style="color: #0b0c0c;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">R</span></span>esponsibili</a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Devolved-taxes-forecast.pdf">ty</a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Devolved-taxes-forecast.pdf"> figures</a>, though, s<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ay that Labour's overestimated the tax <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">that would come in from <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">a 1% <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">hike so there's another £10 million <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">out of the pot - down to £4<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">15 million. If you want to understand how the OBR got to its projectio<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">n I'd recommend reading the original <a href="http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Forecasting-Scottish-taxes.pdf">forecasting methodology </a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Forecasting-Scottish-taxes.pdf">booklet</a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">.<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> We can't say whether this is en<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ough to satisfy Labour's spe<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">nding commit<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ments for this tax rise bec<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ause </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>the spending was never a<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ctually <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">laid out but we can say that losing £35 million in a couple o<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">f hours is a bit careless when you're asking people to trust you with more of th<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">eir money.</span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Then there's the cost of administering the <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">£100 that people have g<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ot to claim <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">back through their council<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">. It wa<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">sn't<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> clear at first what the proposed costs were but it became clear when Kezia got into a Twitter spat with a<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">n SNP candidate - </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbIAcw08NnMlCuKVUS_xGxETXhs6kakVBvpRGSTG4y3jGw0qFYJZTzzvdPAchONfwuSXA5dLfSTZRO4cI9BqwctP6QzHP0J0h7rrHjWmlCP6VXJYgRJlhonrcUIaVjiVQC1BgFeHmDREum/s1600/Kez+on+costs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbIAcw08NnMlCuKVUS_xGxETXhs6kakVBvpRGSTG4y3jGw0qFYJZTzzvdPAchONfwuSXA5dLfSTZRO4cI9BqwctP6QzHP0J0h7rrHjWmlCP6VXJYgRJlhonrcUIaVjiVQC1BgFeHmDREum/s1600/Kez+on+costs.jpg" /></a></div>
<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span> </span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Quite why she was bothering with <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">such a biffing back and forth with a<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> first-time cand<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">idate instead of getting on with her j<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ob of annoying the Scottish Government and leading Labour I've no idea but the £1 million <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">admin cost is simply not credible. Thos<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">e <a href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefingsAndFactsheets/S4/SB_14-17.pdf">Discretionary Housing P</a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefingsAndFactsheets/S4/SB_14-17.pdf">ayments</a> (DHP) are<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> payments towards housing costs. It<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">'s </span></span>the mech<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">anism by<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> which the Scottish Gove<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">rnment mitigates the <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">cuts in Housing Benefit known as the bedroom tax<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">, among other things.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Total DHP in Scotland </span>is <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Social-Welfare/dhp/30Sep2015">less than £40m</a> (limited by Department of Work and Pensions rules) and <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">covers housing costs in areas where council<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">s will already have substantial information on claimants (you have to be claim<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ing Housing Benefit which you claim through <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">your council or the <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">housing element of Universal Credit <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">to get a DHP) and can process them in a fairly straightforward manner, fittin<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">g them into existing claims in most instances</span>. <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Councils have no data or method of collecting data for the £100 and there will be many more claim<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ants <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">(if people can find th<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">e time) but Kezia reckons that it w<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ill be much cheaper to administer the more complicat<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ed scheme. It<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> may be that there is magic <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">in the <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">air but the truth is <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">more likely to be that it's not possible<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<br />
<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Labour isn'<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">t serious</span></b></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">On the day that Stage 1 o<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">f the <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Budget was in <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Parliament Labour MSPs were outside at<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> a demo trying to make headlines instead of<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> being inside in the committee<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">s <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">scrutinising the budget. <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/report.aspx?r=10351&i=95248&c=1908111#ScotParlOR">Kevin Stewart MSP raise</a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/report.aspx?r=10351&i=95248&c=1908111#ScotParlOR">d it </a>during <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">the Budget <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">debate :</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> </span></b> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<div id="stcpDiv" style="left: -1988px; position: absolute; top: -1999px;">
Does
James Kelly not acknowledge that this morning the cabinet secretary was
at the Local Government and Regeneration Committee and then the Finance
Committee for those committees’ budget scrutiny? Only one Labour member
turned up at the Local Government and Regeneration Committee, and that
member asked only one question. Is Labour really so bothered about all
this? - See more at:
http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/report.aspx?r=10351&i=95248&c=1908111#ScotParlOR</div>
<br />
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<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Does
James Kelly not acknowledge that this morning the cabinet secretary was at the
Local Government and Regeneration Committee and then the Finance Committee for
those committees’ budget scrutiny? Only one Labour member turned up at the
Local Government and Regeneration Committee, and that member asked only one
question. Is Labour really so bothered about all this? </span></div>
</blockquote>
<br />
<div id="stcpDiv" style="left: -1988px; position: absolute; top: -1999px;">
Does
James Kelly not acknowledge that this morning the cabinet secretary was
at the Local Government and Regeneration Committee and then the Finance
Committee for those committees’ budget scrutiny? Only one Labour member
turned up at the Local Government and Regeneration Committee, and that
member asked only one question. Is Labour really so bothered about all
this? - See more at:
http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/report.aspx?r=10351&i=95248&c=1908111#ScotParlOR</div>
<div id="stcpDiv" style="left: -1988px; position: absolute; top: -1999px;">
Does
James Kelly not acknowledge that this morning the cabinet secretary was
at the Local Government and Regeneration Committee and then the Finance
Committee for those committees’ budget scrutiny? Only one Labour member
turned up at the Local Government and Regeneration Committee, and that
member asked only one question. Is Labour really so bothered about all
this? - See more at:
http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/report.aspx?r=10351&i=95248&c=1908111#ScotParlOR</div>
<br />
<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Lab<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">our's D<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">eputy Leader only menti<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">o<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ned the policy when </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>he was asked about it and spent <a href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/report.aspx?r=10351&i=95248&c=1908133#ScotParlOR">much more of his speech praising the SNP S</a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/report.aspx?r=10351&i=95248&c=1908133#ScotParlOR">cottish Go</a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/report.aspx?r=10351&i=95248&c=1908133#ScotParlOR">vernment</a> (no, I don't think he<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">'s preparing a leadership challenge)<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">, perhaps displaying a bi<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">t more of <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">the strategic thinking that Labour will have to do.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">If there was serious intent behind this pol<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">icy <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">it would have been laid out well in advance with plenty detail but it wasn't. <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">No Labour speaker yesterday mentioned amending the Budget Bill<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> - <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">t<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">his may be be<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">c<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ause they are infamously useless at it<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">, most famously Iain Gray having an amendment for additional apprenticeships accepted by the Govern<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ment and then <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">whipping <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Labour</span> MSPs </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>to vote against it.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">The £100 pay<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ment is <a href="http://labourhame.com/penny-for-your-thoughts/#comment-133852">supposed to be</a> </span></span></span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">an annual payment of £100 for every household paying tax and earning under £20,000</span></span></span></blockquote>
<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">so a couple both earning <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">would have to have a joint income of less than £20,<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">000 to qualify <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">for the bung <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">(they'd get the tax rise <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">in any case).</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">There's nothing to indicate what <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">the rules are for house<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">s in mul<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">tiple occupation<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> where a fairly hefty chunk of young professional<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">s (certainly in <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">E</span>dinburgh)</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> live while they are saving to try to get on in life</span> so you could have three o<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">r four <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">people earning less than £20,000 each getting hit with a tax rise while they're trying to make ends meet.</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>It's serious</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">This is a serious issue - I<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">'m in favour of raising <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">income tax <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">but <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">this scheme</span></span></span></span> would hurt a lot of pe<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ople without delivering<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> the resources Scotland needs. I'd quite happily see tax raised on higher rate taxpayers and additional rate taxpayers <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">but I can'<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">t see any justi<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">fication for upping the <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">basic rate for the low paid. If we had <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">proper contro<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">l we could, of course<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">, <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">create other rates, adjust the thresholds, <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">change<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> th<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">e</span></span></span> allowances and </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>so on - b<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ut we don't have control. You can<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> blame whoever you want for <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">that lack.</span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Th<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">e scale of <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Social-Welfare/IncomePoverty/povertyemployment">working poverty in Scotland</a> is stark - </span> 360,000 households <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">with at least on<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">e person working</span></span> are liv</span></span></span>ing in poverty. That's 10.7% of all working househ<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">olds in Scotland - the workless households </span>and the households where people are economically inactive for other reasons aren't included in this fi<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">gure. That's <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">the challenge we have to face <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">in a rich nation <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">blessed with advantages. <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I can see no justification for increasing their income tax, their council tax<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> or any other tax they have to pay until <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">the<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">y have <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">the chance of a lifestyle that is at least decent.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #0b0c0c; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Labour has the chance to bring forward <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">an </span>amendment<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> to the budget <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">and to put this proposal in its manifesto<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">. <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Neither <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">w<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ou<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ld be good for Scotland and neither would be good for Labour.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
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Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-58993249698862578942015-11-17T02:46:00.001+00:002015-11-17T02:48:45.374+00:00d'Hondt and its intriguesThere's been a bit of a disagreement <a href="http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2015/11/15/vote-what/">here</a> and <a href="http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/11/vote-tactical-get-tory.html">there</a> about how Yes supporters should vote on the regional list in May. A rare wee argument about how the AMS system works is always delightful if you're as much of an anorak as I am - even though some say it's d'Hondt when it's the Additional Member System using d'Hondt for the second part of the process - but it's a terrible thing to see folk thinking the debate is about the numbers and the arithmetic when it should be about the electors.<br />
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Here's how the problem looks - some folk think that SNP constituency voters should be told to switch to another pro-independence party for the regional (or list) vote and some that they should stay with the SNP and there's all kinds of fancy calculations about whether an SNP vote in the second ballot would be a wasted vote and how many switchers from the SNP to other 'Yes' parties would be needed to increase the number of pro-independence MSPs in the next Parliament. These are interesting theories and great for pub discussions; they could excite the mortal coils of half-dead pub bore activists and auld fellas remembering the glory days. There's a problem, though; they don't matter for some very good reasons:</div>
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Firstly, the regional vote only comes into play after the constituency contests have been decided and, contrary to some speculation, none of them have been won yet, nothing is guaranteed. In fact, no-one has cast a single vote in those elections yet - we're about five months away from the postal ballots going out and anything can happen in that time. No-one's vote is in the bag yet and we have no idea what might happen between now and then. There's an outside chance; a very outside chance; a ridiculously unlikely chance that Nicola Sturgeon will change her mind in that time - she might even decide to join Labour because she likes a challenge - or she might just lose the magic touch she's had so far and turn into the kind of lemon who's been leading Labour in Scotland and the UK since 2007. She might also retire to a cottage on an island to do macrame the rest of her life - or she might lead the SNP into the Scottish Parliament election with skill, dedication, a dash of panache and a strawberry smoothie. That doesn't mean that no-one else in the SNP will mess up, though - we've got some new MPs and a wheenge of MSPs as well as all the councillors even before we get to the candidates and a whole load of them have never tasted opposition, hardly know electoral defeat, and have no idea how a discussion which seems entirely reasonable when it's oral can become something entirely different when it's written down. There are plenty opportunities for it all to go terribly wrong. So no-one knows how the constituency vote will pan out even before we get to the regional vote.</div>
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So, anyway, not a single vote has been cast and won't be for a long time yet, but that's not the only thing. The other thing is that the votes don't belong to a political party; far from all the guff that gets talked about safe seats (disproven, surely, in May of this year), core votes, tribal voters and supporter blocks (I give you 'the Catholic vote', 'the pensioner vote' and the 'aspirational working class vote' as examples), votes belong to individuals, they belong to people who can use them however the heck they like. Political parties can't tell people how to vote (ask Labour how that theory worked in the long run) or what the issues are; we can only suggest, argue and seek to persuade. The SNP can't tell its first vote supporters how to vote on the second vote; it can suggest but not insist. That leads to the next thing.</div>
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Even if the SNP took a wild-eyed stab at creating a massive pro-Yes majority in May and tried to direct enough voters to RISE and to the Greens, there are a few hurdles along the way. I haven't seen any canvass stats since the election of 2011 so none of my information is up to date but, back in the olden days, not all SNP voters were independence supporters (a chunk were opposed) and not all of the supporters of unionist parties were opposed to independence (about a third of Labour voters and a quarter of Tory voters were pro-Yes) - that, of course, suffers the indignity of the caveats of canvassing and the biases that come from that method of gathering information. The upshot, though, is that we really can't be sure that a message that says "vote this way for a better chance of independence" will fall on fertile ground - it might persuade people to vote in a different way.</div>
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Then there's party preference - SNP activists ask more in-depth questions than other parties' activists and four and a half years ago most SNP voters had no second choice party, of those who expressed a second choice the biggest chunk were Labour, followed by SSP, Tory, Green and Lib Dem. I have no idea whether the elections and referendum since then have changed that but, if they haven't, would the SNP saying that it doesn't need the second preference votes (ahead of knowing whether or not it does) encourage electors to head to their second preference party, thereby giving Labour more 'gifted' regional votes than any other party? Whether that would gift seats to Labour I'll leave to those with crystal balls who can predict the constituency vote and the relative strengths of the parties six months from now.</div>
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Here's another thing - I've tried winning and I've tried losing and I prefer winning but I still look at the SNP's utter dominance of Scottish politics now and think it's unhealthy. I know that it's come about because the opposition is unbearably awful and we're much better than they have been for decades but I still think politics is better with a decent opposition and maybe there are other Scottish voters with a similar opinion. Maybe the SNP can lose votes through people thinking too much weight on one side is a really bad thing.</div>
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So, all-in-all, maybe all of Scotland's political parties should treat Scotland's voters with respect and lay out a case for votes? Maybe we should remember that the votes belong to the people who cast them and not to parties and we should be going all out to persuade voters of our wonderfulness and why they should vote for us? Personally, I'm uncomfortable with the SNP's dominance and I'd be even more uncomfortable if any of us felt we had the right to tell people what to do with their votes.</div>
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A plague on all your houses - and a blessing, too. Let's remember the differences between elections and referendums. When we stop treating the electors as numbers we'll all be better off.</div>
Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-38493291828301321542015-11-01T22:35:00.001+00:002015-11-01T22:35:11.928+00:00Mundell and the Money ProblemThe Herald has reported that <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13928595.Scottish_Secretary_David_Mundell_accepts_thousands_of_pounds_in_donations_derived_from_a_pawn_shop_/?ref=mr&lp=11">Scottish Secretary, David 'Fluffy' Mundell,</a> accepted donations worth £10,000 in this year from a property company that has a single source of income which brings in about £6,000 in a year. The report also notes £10,000 to the central Tory party in the run-up to the election in May. In there is a quote worth picking up on - <blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #3f3f3f; font-family: 'Source Sans Pro', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 20px;">In 2013, Gillies relocated to Singapore where he is now a “private wealth manager”.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="background-color: white; clear: none; color: #3f3f3f; font-family: 'Source Sans Pro', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; padding: 0px;">
Although he lives overseas, he is still able to donate via his companies, as they are registered and do business in the UK.</blockquote>
The problem is that he isn't able to "donate via his companies" at all. A quick look at<a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2000/41/section/54"> section 54 of the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000</a> shows that individuals who are on the electoral roll can donate, as can companies carrying on business in the UK (and a few other entities). What you can't do is use a company carrying on business in the UK as an illicit channel for a donation from an individual who isn't allowed to donate in their own name. That's covered in <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2000/41/section/61">section 61</a> which basically says that if you try to find a way round the rules you're committing an offence.<br />
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So, you can believe that a company where the turnover is only £6k a year happened to have £20k hanging around for political donations this year (that'll be three years and four months worth of income just sitting waiting - you can see why a company would just have that sitting about) or possibly, just possibly, someone thought a wee sleight-of-hand with a donation or two was in order. In any case, someone should ask the Electoral Commission to have a quick look.Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-28592052960700938562015-07-09T01:44:00.001+01:002015-07-09T01:44:37.873+01:00TwitterWhen I was a lad, a primary school pupil, my dad took me out campaigning. I was a shy kid and didn't exactly put myself forward but I was spat on by Labour activists. These weren't the dainty spits of a lady disposing of an insect which had found its way into her mouth, these were great gobs that were summoned from their feet, that echoed in the top of their nostrils and the back of their throats, that produced green and sticky and unpleasant stuff. And these grown men gobbed on me - a boy, a primary school pupil - and smirked with satisfaction and walked on to hand out leaflets to people who had watched them do that.<br />
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There was a guy with us who was a bit less quick understanding things in life. They taunted him until his father took him home - time after time.<br />
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When I was an election agent a dead cat was nailed to my door with SNP leaflets in its mouth. When I was a candidate shit wrapped in my leaflets was posted through my door.<br />
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I've seen polling station boards stolen or burned or urinated on, I've seen activists hounded off of polling stations through threats of violence to their families. I've seen voters told that Labour would know how they voted.<br />
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I've seen bad things happen in elections but I'm just glad that I grew up before Twitter was here because someone might have said something bad about me!Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-39048261762633549932014-01-09T07:02:00.002+00:002014-01-09T07:03:34.870+00:00Updating CBI ScotlandI've been meaning to update an old post of mine for quite a while now. It's a post from three years and four days ago about how <a href="http://calumcashley.blogspot.co.uk/2011/01/cbi-scotland-who-does-it-speak-for.html">the CBI doesn't really represent many Scottish businesses</a> at all (90 Scottish members, 62 of which were companies - that was the January 2011 membership). When I went back to the <a href="http://www.cbi.org.uk/about-the-cbi/uk/scotland/">CBI Scotland website </a>to update the figures the directory had disappeared, gone, vanished, disapparated, desubstantiated, dissolved into nothingness, shrugged off that digital coil, shuffled into the shadows, never to be seen again. That seemed strange - why would an organisation that used to be so proud of its members suddenly get so coy? Once it flaunted its membership with an online directory, now it primly hides that membership behind its skirts.<br />
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Intrigued, I emailed CBI Scotland to ask - here's the exchange:<br />
<blockquote>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">To CBI Scotland on 7/9/12</span> </blockquote>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;">Hi,</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><br /></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;">I was wondering how many Scottish companies are CBI members. You used to have an online</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"> directory</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;">but I can't find it now, can you help?</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><br /></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;">Calum</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"></span></span></blockquote>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">To CBI London on 13/9/12</span></span> </blockquote>
<blockquote>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Hi, </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">I sent this request about a week ago to CBI Scotland and haven't had a response, I was wondering whether you could help me?</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Do you have figures for how many CBI members are headquartered in Scotland and what sectors they're in?</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Cheers</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Calum</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"></span></span></blockquote>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Reply from CBI Scotland on 14/9/12</span></span> </blockquote>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Dear Mr Cashley,</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> </span> </blockquote>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Thank you for your email enquires below which have just been passed to me; I apologise the delay in responding.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">The CBI is a private membership organisation and we do not disclose details of our membership, however it does include companies from all sectors and of all sizes, large and small, including manufacturing and service sectors as well as parent and subsidiary companies, plus trade associations. We held our Scottish annual dinner in Glasgow last week and were delighted to welcome almost 600 to the event. Our public policy positions are decided by our 45-strong elected CBI Scotland Council and informed by our various policy sub-groups and the wider membership.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">I do hope this is in order and thank you for getting in touch.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> </span> </blockquote>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Best wishes,</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> </span> </blockquote>
<blockquote>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">David Lonsdale</span> </blockquote>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">CBI Scotland</span></blockquote>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"></span></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Both of my emails were below the CBI Scotland response; it was sent when CBI London said an answer should be sent. It is an utterly empty response lacking any information. No response on how many CBI members are headquartered in Scotland or how many Scottish companies are CBI members. I thought this was a bit strange, given the previous flaunting of its membership so I asked friends of mine who live south of the Rio Tweed to ask for the same information in different ways from CBI HQ and we've not had any luck in getting any information whatsoever from the organisation that claims to speak for Scottish businesses / British businesses (and, I take it, Welsh businesses, North of England businesses and so on).</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">So, with this once braggart organisation becoming shy over its membership, I can't update that post in the way I wrote it but I think I can make an assumption or two and go from there. I think it's safe to assume that the membership isn't growing - notice, even in the answer which was eventually sent to me that the inflated membership numbers that CBI Scotland used to claim in public (in, for instance, evidence to Holyrood committees) have become untenable and have disappeared. Everything is private these days. Let's assume that CBI membership is declining because that seems likely; belts are being tightened, non-essentials are being dispensed with, things that don't do your business any favours don't get the time of day.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">That's not all; TIE, which was a member of CBI Scotland, has been wound up and no longer exists - it and Lothian Buses now make up <a href="http://www.edinburghtrams.com/">Transport for Edinburgh (I kid you not)</a> and Lothian Buses never wasted money on CBI membership.</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a222a; line-height: 20px;">Food Trade Association Management has <a href="http://www.companiesintheuk.co.uk/ltd/food-trade-association-management">made an application to be struck off </a>so that will no longer be a member of CBI Scotland.</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a222a; line-height: 20px;"><br /></span></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a222a; line-height: 20px;">If ConocoPhilips is still a member of the CBI then <a href="http://www.conocophillips.co.uk/who-we-are/collaboration/Pages/collaboration.aspx">it's keeping it quiet</a> and, while it still has an operational base in Aberdeen, its UK headquarters now <a href="http://www.conocophillips.co.uk/our-operations/Pages/europe-commercial.aspx">appears to be in London</a>.</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a222a; line-height: 20px;"><br /></span></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a222a; line-height: 20px;"><a href="http://www.companiesintheuk.co.uk/ltd/chance-associates">Chance Associates was dissolved</a> last year.</span></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a222a; line-height: 20px;">James Barr was<a href="http://www.business7.co.uk/business-news/property/2013/10/07/gva-acquires-glasgow-property-consultant-james-barr-106408-24013980/"> bought by London company GVA</a> in October.</span></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a222a; line-height: 20px;"><a href="http://www.companiesintheuk.co.uk/ltd/laura-gordon-associates">Laura Gordon Associates was dissolved </a>in 2011.</span></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a222a; line-height: 20px;">SI Associates <a href="http://www.companiesintheuk.co.uk/ltd/si-associates">has been liquidated</a>.</span></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a222a; line-height: 20px;"><a href="http://www.pinsentmasons.com/newfirm/">McGrigors merged with Pinsent Masons</a> - the new HQ is in London.</span></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a222a; line-height: 20px;"><a href="http://www.companiesintheuk.co.uk/ltd/elphinstone-holdings">Elphinstone Holdings is in administration</a>.</span></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a222a; line-height: 20px;"><a href="http://london-gazette.vlex.co.uk/vid/f-watt-contracts-limited-313932150">WF Watt (Contracts) was wound up in 2011</a>.</span></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a222a; line-height: 20px;">Memex Technologies had actually <a href="http://www.sas.com/offices/europe/uk/press_office/press_releases/June2010/memex-intelligence-management.html">been bought by an American company (SAS) </a>before I wrote the original post, so I overshot with the number of Scottish companies represented by CBI Scotland by at least one at that time.</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a222a; line-height: 20px;"><br /></span></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a222a; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">It's actually quite a sad list that indicates some sad losses in Scotland's business base, but we should remember that there are plenty of other Scottish companies that are doing well - including some of the ones which were members of CBI Scotland in 2011.</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a222a; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"><br /></span></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a222a; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">What's clear, though, is that CBI Scotland still doesn't represent any great swathes of Scottish business opinion (and since public pronouncements made on behalf of CBI Scotland have been denied by members in the past, it doesn't seem to even represent the opinion of its own members) and its influence, weak as it is already, appears to be in further decline. It's a shame that CBI Scotland, with probably less than 50 Scottish companies as members, feels that it needs to be so secretive about its membership - especially when it seeks to influence Scottish public policy so much on behalf of 'Scottish business' - and it's a shame that it has reacted so negatively to the constitutional debate. It appears, however, that CBI Scotland is a bell wi nae clapper that stills rings too loudly. I'd blow a raspberry if I knew how to write such a thing.</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a222a; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;"><br /></span></span>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1a222a; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 20px;">Maybe we should hear a lot more from <a href="http://www.fsb.org.uk/scotland">the Federation of Small Businesses</a> with its 19,000 Scottish businesses.</span></span></div>
Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-60802625917196499902014-01-08T06:36:00.001+00:002014-01-08T06:36:41.205+00:00Those pesky international treatiesRemember the hooha, the kerfuffle and the keich about all the international treaties that Scotland would have to renegotiate after independence? Was it 14,000 or so that was claimed? Treaties that included those about navigating the Rhine last century and addressing some issue that was important when Victoria was busy being unamused, leaving less than a quarter having any relevance today, most of which Scotland could accede to without having to do much more than say "aye, we agree to that"?<br />
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Well, they include an awful lot that are about reciprocal medical treatment. How do I know? Well, I was standing at a bus-stop and a chap sidled up and whispered "pssssst, you'll be interested in these" and he handed me a couple of links. I rushed home and shoved them in the back of the computer, wound up the key and had a look. The first one is a <a href="http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1982/0176/latest/DLM1716202.html">terribly interesting agreement between the UK and New Zealand</a> about being decent people to each other's people in that if I pop over to NZ for a wee look round and get sick the health service in that fine country will treat me and bear the cost. Similarly, if one of the All-Blacks forwards gets mown down by a Scottish scrum half and ends up in hospital then the poor fella will get treated in one of our hospitals and we'll bear the cost. That's what decent people do, isn't it? Interesting that this agreement was signed by Thatcher's Government.<br />
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The other link - well, <a href="http://www.nhs.uk/nhsengland/healthcareabroad/countryguide/noneeacountries/pages/non-eeacountries.aspx">the other link shows that this wee treaty is not alone</a>. Medical treatment resulting from bad boogying in Barbados, crap karaoke in Kyrgyzstan or a misbehaving molar in Moldova will be supplied free or awfy cheap. <span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;">Armenia</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;">, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Gibraltar, Serbia, Montenegro, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Macedonia, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan and others have agreements with the UK - as well as, of course, <a href="http://www.nhs.uk/NHSEngland/Healthcareabroad/countryguide/Pages/EEAcountries.aspx">the 31 EEA countries and Switzerland</a>.</span></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;">So what? Well, </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">under the charging plans that the London Government (Lib Dems and Tories) is planning for Accident and Emergency departments (are they still called A&E? It didn't get changed while I wasn't looking?) are nurses and doctors expected to check whether the person in front of them and in desperate need of medical help happens to come from one of the many states with which the UK Government has a reciprocal medical assistance treaty in place? Will m'learned friend hanging around saying "I know she's slipping in and out of consciousness but you can't treat her until we find out whether she is from a country with a treaty or not"?</span></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;">I don't think that I'll be terribly off-target if I assume that the current Scottish Government has decided that it doesn't consider this to be a very good idea so I'm just assuming that it won't be happening in Scotland. Having a wee ask about, though, I came upon a friend of mine who turns out to know a thing or two about medical things and they said "</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">GMC rules mean that Doctors have to treat the sick or injured person in front of them. If they refused on grounds of charging or failure to pay or any such nonsense there is a good chance they'd find themselves struck off - and quite rightly so." I think GMC is the General Medical Council and they regulate medical types. That would create an interesting tension - the Government which is the paymaster for NHS salaries saying "don't treat this person" while the regulatory body is saying "if you don't treat this person you won't be a doctor any longer." Well, the tension is interesting for me in an abstract kind of a way; I'm sure it wouldn't be very interesting for the doctors so much as an inexcusable Catch 22 and a ridiculous position for any employer to put its employees in, never mind the lack of decency inherent in thinking that it's fine to leave a sick or injured person suffering while we have a health service perfectly capable of treating them.</span></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Seeking a reasoned and considered opinion, I turned to The Ranter (so called for the measured and mellow tones with which opinions are delivered) and received something like this in response:</span></span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">"You've got to look at what the </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">endgame is here for the Tories and the Lib Dems, they want to effectively remove wholly socialised medicine and replace it with partially socialised medicine and then a market on top while at the same time portraying their position as protecting the NHS. Being upfront about completely marketising the NHS would be a PR disaster and political suicide so to get their way without becoming utterly unmentionable everywhere outside of their own houses they are salami slicing it away.</span></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><br /></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;">"Think about it - and really think about this time you lazy sods - to introduce any form of upfront charging regimes for these terrible foreign types would require some mechanism to determine what the charge should be for each kind of procedure or treatment or assessment or suchlike. You've got to assume with this lot that the charges will be based on full cost recovery (materials, staff costs, accommodation, food while on the premises, and so on).</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><br /></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><br /></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;">"That's not going to be easy, is it? It's going to need a bureaucracy - and those costs will get added in as well. It will probably need to be an organisation doing something similar to NICE, so that charges can be refreshed regularly and kept at arms length from government for appearances' sakes. Charges would need to be consistent across England, of course, otherwise you'd create a perverse incentive for the foreign types to shop around.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><br /></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><br /></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;">"So to deal with these foreigners you now have an apparatus in place which establishes charges for treatment on the NHS - and they can even introduce 'extras' and 'luxuries' that can be added on like you might do in a good hotel. Hey, seeing as that charging system is place anyway why don't we make sure our glorious NHS isn't being abused by scroungers, so you still get free healthcare folks but shouldn't the cash going to the hospitals reflect the patients they get? So let's have the money follow the patient, let's have real national insurance where if you're in work then sure your treatment is free because you deserve it; and pensioners, well they've contributed all their lives, and kids as well, just because we're nice.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><br /></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><br /></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;">"But see these benefits scrounging types, well, they're just taking the piss aren't they? So obviously they'd get emergency treatment if they really needed it but maybe if they don't take that job or do that workfare scheme or we assess them as scroungers then they should get restricted free primary care and so on. I mean, if they're not contributing to the pot why should they get to take out of it?</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><br /></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><br /></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;">"And hey, since we're on the subject, do you want treated faster, or with a particular doctor, dentist, hospital, clinic? Well, you can wait or, if you want, pay the small top up charge that we promise won't go up the way that tuition fees went up. And that wee charge, well that's good for everybody because the additional profits made from that will go into the pot to pay for general patient care...</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><br /></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><br /></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;">"That's my read of the long term goals b</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;">ut I'm doubtless just being paranoid because it's not like following the recent health legislation in England that certain treatments are no longer freely available in NHS England, is it?"</span></span><div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;">Sometimes I think The Ranter needs to get out more, sometimes I think the opposite, but I nearly always find myself thinking "yeah, I can see that coming to pass" and it often does. Maybe it's keeping chickens that gives you that insight.</span></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;">Anyway, given that the London Government seems determined to head down this road, who'd want to be a medic in England in the next few years? Scotland, I hope, will keep our NHS as a public good and for the public good.</span></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222;">The question is how do we protect it and ensure we keep it? The answer - well, make up your own mind but <a href="http://2016wishtree.wordpress.com/2013/10/16/inheriting-the-nhs/">have a read of this </a>while you're doing it.</span></span></div>
Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-17255552570404024342013-12-05T21:06:00.003+00:002013-12-05T21:10:10.371+00:00Lib Dems - it's you that's doing itOn Tuesday night I had a Lib Dem on twitter telling me that the pension facts in <a href="http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2013/11/27/facing-the-facts/">this Bella Caledonia piece</a> weren't accurate because some people in the UK can afford to save large amounts for their old age. I tire of pointing out to Lib Dems what seems so simple to the rest of the population so I'll just say this; if you're a Lib Dem your party isn't taking the edge off the Tory excesses, it's facilitating them. If you wanted to curb the power of the Tory Government you would have left it to form a minority government where it would have had to negotiate the passage of every measure without the certainty of having Lib Dem MPs whipped in to support them.<br />
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So if you're a Lib Dem, you did this -<br />
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You're responsible for the economic and fiscal policies which see<a href="http://news.stv.tv/scotland/188640-children-bearing-brunt-of-recession-as-parents-struggle-to-feed-them/"> 1 in 6 Scottish children going to bed hungry</a> and massive pressure piling on their parents.<br />
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You're responsible for policies which have created a <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/health/food-banks-see-five-times-as-many-scots-needing-aid-1-3142878">massive increase in the number of people relying on foodbanks</a>.<br />
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You've driven people to desperation, to the very ends of their tethers, <a href="http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/tenant-slits-wrist-housing-office-2237582">to the point where they feel they have no options left</a>, nowhere left to turn. You're responsible for <a href="http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/bedroom-tax-disabled-mum-of-two-lorraine-2204216">disabled people being threatened with eviction</a>.<br />
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It's your Government that's thinking about<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24369514"> cutting benefits for people under 25</a>.<br />
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You're spending<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13442735"> billions of pounds on nuclear weapons</a>.<br />
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In spite of all that you still have the cheek to tell Scotland that we can't govern ourselves, and <a href="http://nationalcollective.com/2013/11/09/alistair-carmichael-our-man-in-westminster/">using this Eeyore </a>to do it.<br />
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Inequality, Dickensian poverty, crushing communities - the Lib Dem legacy. It isn't someone else doing this; it wasn't a big boy who did it and ran away. You aren't keeping Cameron and Osborne in check, you're part of what they're doing. It's not that someone else is doing this; you're doing this. When Osborne speaks he's your man, what he does is your doing. When Iain Duncan Smith is cutting benefits it's you that's doing it. Those xenophobic immigration policies are yours, that determination to roll back human rights is yours, those 'go home' vans were yours, those cuts in Scotland's budget are your cuts, all of the horror of the UK Government is yours - it's your doing.<br />
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Anybody else would feel a burning shame but I suspect that the average Lib Dem doesn't understand that feeling.Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-14591307215766107212013-10-16T20:25:00.002+01:002013-10-16T20:25:56.410+01:00How hard do you work, Darling?Yesterday I had a look at<a href="http://calumcashley.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/ali-d-in-da-cash.html"> how much money Alistair Darling MP makes outside of politics</a> (although it should be noted that he can only earn this money because of the privileged position he held in UK politics) and it turned out to be a substantial amount - substantially more than he earns for his work in politics. It struck me that his flying around the world to speak to big corporations must take up a fair bit of time and I started wondering whether that leaves him enough time to do the job we pay him to do so I had a wee look.<br />
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Ministers don't ask Parliamentary Questions (that would just be them asking themselves questions and would just be daft) and don't sign motions except Government motions (when a Minister speaks they're giving a Government position) so I've looked at the period since the 2010 UK general election. In those 41 months since he stopped being chancellor of the Exchequer and was able to ask PQs again <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/hansard/commons/by-mp/">Mr Darling has asked 57 questions.</a> <br />
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As a comparison, <a href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/28877.aspx?SearchType=Advance&DateFrom=5/5/2011%2012:00:00%20AM&DateTo=10/16/2013%2011:59:59%20PM&MSPId=1778&SortBy=DateSubmitted&Answers=All&SearchFor=WrittenQuestions&ResultsPerPage=10">Helen Eadie MSP has asked 265 PQs of the Scottish Government </a>in the 29 months since the 2011 Scottish general election. Alistair Darling, facing the Tories, could only think of a question to ask once every three weeks while Helen Eadie, facing the SNP, asks a question every three days (that's counting weekends, days she's on holiday, Christmas and New Year's Day). One question every 22 days to the Tory/Lib Dem Government in Westminster, one question every three days to the SNP Government in Holyrood.<br />
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It strikes me that just about anyone in Scotland would have more than one question every three weeks to ask the current UK Government, never mind a former Chancellor who should know how Government works and where to go sniffing about. Maybe he's too busy promoting his book, writing newspaper articles and trousering fees for speaking engagements to bother doing the job he gets paid to do?<br />
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Maybe Helen Eadie would do the better job in Westminster? Eadie to leadie!Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-43874462140890466752013-10-15T21:28:00.000+01:002013-10-16T17:25:10.808+01:00Ali D Indacash!<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5oHTBvidgc&feature=c4-overview&list=UUaLxNUjn3IRuWOKTQTT_hfw">There's a lot of sense in Stewart Hosie's point </a>that
the argument that says "stay part of the UK, there'll be another Labour
Government along sometime" is the equivalent of saying "18 years of
Thatcher and Major was worth it for 13 years of Blair and Brown". The
SNP MP for Dundee East was correct to point out that it really hasn't
done us much good over the piece, but Labour is now making that case
even more clearly. So, after <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/12/labour-benefits-tories-labour-rachel-reeves-welfare?CMP=twt_gu">Labour promised at the weekend to be tougher on benefits recipients than Tories</a> (fewer bedrooms than you need, maybe, or scourged through the streets on a daily basis), I thought I'd take a wee look at the earnings of the Labour chap telling us all we'd be better off staying in the UK and waiting for a Labour Government, Alistair Darling MP. Now a backbencher he was once Chancellor of the Exchequer at a time when banks were going bust, the economy was going down the pan big style and it was being revealed that large companies and the wealthiest individuals in the UK were paying sod all tax.<br />
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I had a wee shuftie through Mr Darling's<a href="http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmregmem.htm"> Register of Financial Interests</a> to see how well he was doing. I've pasted three extracts from the register below. I think they cover the whole period, though.<br />
<br />
In the year to the end of September this year Ali D sooked in £185,039 for making speeches and £3,384 for writing articles for newspapers - a nice wee soaking of £188,423 for the year to add to his salary as a backbench MP of £66,396 taking him to £254,819. That's more than he got paid as Chancellor. In fact, it's more than David Cameron gets paid to be Prime Minister (he gets £142,500 including his MP's salary).<br />
<br />
Between getting horsed out of office in 2010 and August 2012 he cornered another £447,268.43 in speaking fees, writing fees, gifts, travel and accommodation. That's £635,691.43 in declared outside earnings since the 2010 general election. Add on his £263,610 of salary for the job he should have been doing while he was speaking, writing, travelling, wining, dining and accepting gifts and the total rises to £899,301.43. By Christmas he may have broken the million pounds barrier.<br />
<br />
Tough on benefits? They've got no idea how tough it is to be on benefits. Kicking the poor from a position of affluence and power, and they have the affrontery to suggest that other people might be less socially just than they are, the sheer brass neck to say that other people have their sums wrong, the smug arrogance to say "wait a few years and a change in Government in London will make it all better together."<br />
<br />
Some face.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Excerpts from Register:</b><br />
<a href="http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmregmem/130930/darling_alistair.htm">30th September 2013</a><br />
<h3 class="shd">
Remunerated employment, office, profession etc</h3>
<div class="indent">
Contract with Atlantic Books, Ormond House, 26/27 Boswell street, London WC1N 3JW for publication of book. <i>(Registered 25 March 2011)</i></div>
<div class="spacer">
</div>
<div class="indent">
All fees listed below between 1 May 2011 and 28 May 2013 include VAT. (Registered 24 June 2013)</div>
<div class="spacer">
</div>
<div class="indent">
Fees for speeches paid by JLA Associates, 80 Great Portland Street, London W1W 7NW:</div>
<div class="indent2">
6 September
2012, I received a fee of £10,200 for speaking at a conference organised
by Aberdeen Asset Management. Hours: approx 3 hours, plus travelling
time. <i>(Registered 18 September 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
27 September
2012, I received a fee of £12,240 in respect of speaking at a conference
organised by Apollo Management International LLP. Hours: approx 2
hours, including travel time. <i>(Registered 11 October 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
19 November
2012, I received a fee of £12,240 for speaking at an event organised by
British Property Federation, in London. Hours: approx 4 hrs. <i>(Registered 26 November 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
11 December
2012, I received a payment of £12,240 in respect of a fee for speaking
at an event organised by Slaughter & May LLP, London. Hours: 4 hrs.
<i>(Registered 20 December 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
11 December
2012, I received a payment of £12,240 in respect of a fee for speaking
at an event organised by Scor Insurance, London. Hours: 4 hrs. <i>(Registered 20 December 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
25 January 2013,
I received a fee of £12,999 which included £249.60 in respect of travel
costs for speaking at a seminar organised by Pru Health. Hours: 5 hrs.
<i>(Registered 8 February 2013)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
22 March 2013, I
received a fee of £12,240 in respect of speaking at an event organised
by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Ltd, in Hampshire. Hours:
approx. 6 hrs, including travel time. <i>(Registered 28 March 2013)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
22 March 2013, I
received a fee of £12,240 in respect of speaking at an event organised
by the Automotive Fellowship International Ltd, in Buckinghamshire.
Hours: approx. 6 hrs, including travel time. <i>(Registered 28 March 2013)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
28 March 2013, I
received a fee of £10,200 in respect of speaking at an event organised
by Credit Agricole Group, in London. Hours: approx. 4 hrs, including
travel time. <i>(Registered 28 March 2013)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
28 May 2013, I
received a fee of £15,300 for speaking at a conference organised by JP
Morgan Chase & Co in London. Hours: approx. 4 hrs. <i>(Registered 6 June 2013)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
28 May 2013, I
received a fee of £15,300 for speaking at a conference organised by
Global Absolute Return Congress in London. Hours: approx. 5 hrs. <i>(Registered 6 June 2013)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
<span style="color: black;">13 June 2013, I received a fee of £10,200 in respect of speaking
at a conference organised by Price Waterhouse Cooper LLP, accountants.
They paid for overnight accommodation at a cost of £210. Hours:
approx. 18 hrs including travelling and overnight stay. </span>
<span style="color: black;"><i>(Registered 24 June 2013) </i></span>
</div>
<div class="indent2">
<span style="color: black;">1 July 2013, I received a fee of £8,500 for addressing a
conference organised by Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, London. Hours:
approx. 4 hrs. </span>
<span style="color: black;"><i>(Registered 12 July 2013)</i></span>
</div>
<div class="indent2">
<span style="color: black;">1 July 2013, I received a fee of £12,750 for speaking at a
conference organised by Incisive Financial Publishing Ltd in Monaco.
Travelling costs of £1,234 and overnight accommodation costing £278 were
met by Incisive Financial Publishing Ltd, Haymarket House, 28/29
Haymarket, London SW1Y 4RX. Hours: approx. 26 hrs including travelling
and overnight accommodation. </span>
<span style="color: black;"><i>(Registered 12 July 2013)</i></span>
</div>
<div class="indent2">
<span style="color: black;">12 July 2013, I received a payment of £8,500 for speaking at an
event organised by Jefferies Bauch in London. Hours: approx. 3 hrs. </span>
<span style="color: black;"><i>(Registered 19 July 2013)</i></span>
</div>
<div class="indent2">
<span style="color: black;"><span class="highlight">20 September 2013, I received a fee of £7,650 in respect of speaking at an event organised by Ashurst LLP in </span>
<span style="color: black;">London. Hours: </span>
<span style="color: black;">approx. 4 hrs. </span>
<span style="color: black;"><i>(Registered 26 September 2013)</i></span></span>
</div>
<div class="spacer">
</div>
<div class="indent">
Payments from MGN Ltd, 1 Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5AP:</div>
<div class="indent2">
5 September 2012, I received a payment of £600 in respect of an article published by the Daily Mirror. Hours: approx 2 hrs. <i>(Registered 18 September 2012)</i></div>
<div class="spacer">
</div>
<div class="indent">
Payments from Guardian Newspapers, Kings Place, 90 York Way, London N1 9GO, for writing articles for the Guardian newspaper:</div>
<div class="indent2">
8 December 2012, I received a payment of £342 Hours: 2 hrs. <i>(Registered 20 December 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
28 March 2013, I received a payment of £342. Hours: approx 2 hrs. <i>(Registered 28 March 2013)</i></div>
<div class="spacer">
</div>
<div class="indent">
22 May 2013, I
received a fee of £600 for an article in The Times newspaper. Address
of payer: The Times, 3 Thomas More Square, London E98 1TT. Hours:
approx 3 hrs. <i>(Registered 6 June 2013)</i></div>
<div class="spacer">
</div>
<div class="indent">
<span class="highlight">2
September 2013, I received a payment of £750 from Associated Newspapers
Ltd in respect of an article published in the Mail on Sunday. Address
of payer: Northcliffe House, 2 Derry Street, London W8 5TT. Hours:
approx. 4 hrs. <i>(Registered 26 September 2013)</i></span></div>
<div class="spacer">
</div>
<div class="indent">
<span class="highlight">23
September 2013, I received a payment of £750 in respect of an article
in The Times newspaper. Address of payer: News UK and Ireland Ltd, PO
Box 151, Peterborough, PE7 8YT. Hours: approx. 4 hrs. <i>(Registered 26 September 2013)</i></span></div>
<h3 class="shd">
11. Miscellaneous</h3>
<div class="indent">
Unremunerated Director and Chairman of BetterTogether 2012 Ltd (from 1 June 2012). <i>(Registered 21 June 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent">
<br /></div>
<div class="indent">
<a href="http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmregmem/130204/darling_alistair.htm">4th February 2013 </a></div>
<br />
<div class="wide" id="content">
<div id="content-small">
<div id="mainTextBlock">
<h3 class="shd">
2. Remunerated employment, office, profession etc</h3>
<div class="indent">
Contract with
Atlantic Books, Ormond House, 26/27 Boswell street, London WC1N 3JW for
publication of book. The contract provides for a total advance payment
of £75,000 prior to publication.</div>
<div class="indent2">
10 May 2012, I received a payment of £23,879.28 in respect of royalties from the sale of my book. No additional hours worked. <i>(Registered 30 May 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
14 June 2012, I
received a payment of £4,775.86 in respect of VAT due on royalties from
book sales, registered on 30 May 2012. No additional hours worked. <i>(Registered 21 June 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
In respect of
the contract with Atlantic Books I have attended the following events .
No fee was paid to me but transport and accommodation costs were met as
follows:</div>
<div class="indent2">
3 February 2012,
Winter Words Book Festival, Pitlochry Festival Theatre, Pitlochry,
Perthshire. Accommodation provided for my wife and me; value £104.
This was met jointly by the festival and Atlantic Books. Hours: approx.
2 hrs plus travel. <i>(Registered 5 February 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
11 March 2012,
Aldeburgh Book Festival, 42 High Street, Aldeburgh, Suffolk. Transport
costs for me and my wife of £94 were met by Atlantic Books and £60 by
the festival. Hours: approximately 2 hours plus travel. <i>(Registered 26 March 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
25 March 2012,
Oxford Book Festival; transport costs for me and my wife, total £65,
paid by Atlantic Books. Hours: approximately 2 hrs plus travel. <i>(Registered 26 March 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
9 June 2012, Hay
Book Festival, 25 Lion Street, Hay-on-Wye; hotel accommodation for me
and my wife; cost £225, and our return flights from Edinburgh to
Birmingham; cost £259.62, were paid for by Atlantic Books. Car
transport from Birmingham to Hay-on-Wye; cost £400 return, was paid by
festival organisers. Hours: 2 hrs plus travel.<i> (Registered 21 June 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
15 June 2012,
Althorpe Book Festival; transport costs from London to the festival and
on to Edinburgh for me and my wife; cost £359.68, were paid by Atlantic
Books. Hours: 2 hrs plus travel. <i>(Registered 21 June 2012)</i></div>
<div class="spacer">
</div>
<div class="indent">
Payments from News International Trading Ltd, 3 Thomas More Square, London E98 1TT:</div>
<div class="indent2">
20 February 2012, I received a fee of £600 for an article for The Times. Hours: 3 hrs approx. <i>(Registered 2 March 2012)</i></div>
<div class="spacer">
</div>
<div class="indent">
Fees for speeches paid by JLA Associates, 80 Great Portland Street, London W1W 7NW:</div>
<div class="indent2">
24 January 2012,
I received a fee of £15,300 for speaking at an event organised by Grant
Thornton accountants in London. Hours: approx 5-6 hrs. <i>(Registered 5 February 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
16 February
2012, I received a fee of £20,400 for speaking at an event organised by
Thompson Reuters in Hong Kong. Thompson Reuters, 30 South Colonnade,
the Reuters Building, London E14 5EP paid for my return flight from
London to Hong Kong; cost £2,942.43, and hotel accommodation including
transfer from airport to the hotel, return, for myself and my wife; cost
£713.10. I met the cost of my wife’s travel. Hours: 4 days, including
travel, preparation and the event. <i>(Registered 2 March 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
27 March 2012, I
received a fee of £15,300 for speaking at an event organised by
Linklaters, solicitors, in London. Hours: approx 4 hrs. <i>(Registered 13 April 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
20 April 2012, I
received a payment of £20,400 for speaking at a conference in Dubai.
Transport costs of £2,669.82 and hotel accommodation at a cost of
£326.07 were paid by the organisers, Falcon Group Administrative
Services (UK) Ltd, 30 St Mary Axe, London EC3A 9BF. Hours: approx 2.5
days including travel time. <i>(Registered 2 May 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
8 June 2012, I received a payment of £12,750 for speaking at an event organised by JC Flowers & Co UK Ltd. Hours: 3 hrs. <i>(Registered 21 June 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
19 July 2012, I
received a payment of £12,240 for speaking at an event organised by
Emap/Retail Week in London. Hours: approx 3 hrs. <i>(Registered 24 July 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
6 September
2012, I received a fee of £10,200 for speaking at a conference organised
by Aberdeen Asset Management. Hours: approx 3 hours, plus travelling
time. <i>(Registered 18 September 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
27 September
2012, I received a fee of £12,240 in respect of speaking at a conference
organised by Apollo Management International LLP. Hours: approx 2
hours, including travel time. <i>(Registered 11 October 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
19 November
2012, I received a fee of £12,240 for speaking at an event organised by
British Property Federation, in London. Hours: approx 4 hrs. <i>(Registered 26 November 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
11 December
2012, I received a payment of £12,240 in respect of a fee for speaking
at an event organised by Slaughter & May LLP, London. Hours: 4 hrs.
<i>(Registered 20 December 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
11 December
2012, I received a payment of £12,240 in respect of a fee for speaking
at an event organised by Scor Insurance, London. Hours: 4 hrs. <i>(Registered 20 December 2012)</i></div>
<div class="spacer">
</div>
<div class="indent">
8 June 2012, I
received a payment of £1,200 from Associated Newspapers Ltd,
Northcliffe House, 2 Derry street, London W8 5TT, for an article in the
Mail on Sunday. Hours: 4 hrs approx. <i>(Registered 21 June 2012)</i></div>
<div class="spacer">
</div>
<div class="indent">
Payments from MGN Ltd, 1 Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5AP:</div>
<div class="indent2">
22 June 2012, I received a payment of £720for an article published in the Sunday Mirror. Hours: approx 3 hrs. <i>(Registered 25 June 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
5 September 2012, I received a payment of £600 in respect of an article published by the Daily Mirror. Hours: approx 2 hrs. <i>(Registered 18 September 2012)</i></div>
<div class="spacer">
</div>
<div class="indent">
8 December
2012, I received a payment of £342 from Guardian Newspapers, Kings
Place, 90 York Way, London N1 9GO, in respect of writing an article for
the Guardian newspaper. Hours: 2 hrs. <i>(Registered 20 December 2012)</i></div>
<h3 class="shd">
11. Miscellaneous</h3>
<div class="indent">
Unremunerated Director and Chairman of BetterTogether 2012 Ltd (from 1 June 2012). <i>(Registered 21 June 2012)</i></div>
<div class="indent">
<br /></div>
<div class="indent">
<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="indent">
<a href="http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmregmem/1782/darling_rt-hon-alistair.htm"> Session 2010-2012</a></div>
<h3 class="shd">
2. Remunerated employment, office, profession etc</h3>
<div class="indent">
9 October 2010, I
received a fee of £150 for speaking at the Cheltenham Book Festival.
Travel and overnight accommodation was provided for myself and my wife.
Address: Cheltenham Festivals, 109/11 Bath Road, Cheltenham GL53 7LS.
Hours: 3 hrs approx.<i> (Registered 2 November 2010)</i></div>
<div class="indent">
22 October 2010, I
received a fee of £500 for reviewing Tony Blair’s book ‘A Journey’.
Address of payer: Guardian News and Media, 1 Scott Place, Manchester M3
3GG. Hours: 3-4 hrs. <i>(Registered 2 November 2010)</i></div>
<div class="indent">
5 November 2010, I
received a fee of £500 for appearing on BBC television programme ‘This
Week’. Address of payer: BBC, PO Box 480, Manchester M14 OEL. Hours:
1 hr. <i>(Registered 24 November 2010)</i></div>
<div class="indent">
7 December 2010, I
received a bottle of malt whisky, estimated value £125, from Hermes
Focus Asset Management Ltd, 1 Portsoken Street, London E1 8HZ, for
addressing investment managers at a dinner on 15 November 2010. Hours: 3
hrs. <i>(Registered 17 December 2010)</i></div>
<div class="spacer">
</div>
<div class="indent">
Contract with
Atlantic Books, Ormond House, 26/27 Boswell street, London WC1N 3JW for
publication of book. The contract provides for a total advance payment
of £75,000 prior to publication.</div>
<div class="indent2">
3 March 2011, I
received a payment of £25,000 being the first instalment of an advance
in respect of contract. Hours: 400 hrs approx. <i>(Registered 24 March 2011)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
7 July 2011, I
received a payment of £25,000 being the second instalment of an advance
in respect of contract. Hours: 600 hrs approx. <i>(Registered 8 July 2011)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
15 September 2011, I received a payment of £25,000 being the third instalment of an advance. Hours: 400 hrs approx. <i>(Registered 2 October 2011)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
13 October 2011, I received a payment of £10,000 as VAT due in respect of the second and third instalments of advance. <i>(Registered 4 November 2011)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
In respect of
the contract with Atlantic Books I have attended the following events .
No fee was paid to me but transport and accommodation costs were met as
follows:</div>
<div class="indent2">
11 September
2011, Dun Laoghaire Literary Festival, 137 Hillside, Co Dublin, Ireland.
Transport costs of £616.30 for myself and my wife met by Atlantic
Books. Accommodation paid for by the festival organisers; cost £105.
Hours: approximately 2 hrs plus travel. <i>(Registered 2 October 2011)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
16 September
2011, Woodstock Literary Festival, 301 Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 3NY.
Transport costs for myself and my wife of £132.60 paid by festival
organisers and £43 paid for by Atlantic Books. Hours: approximately 2
hrs plus travel.<i> (Registered 2 October 2011)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
19 September
2011, book signing organised by the Edinburgh Bookshop, 219 Bruntsfield
Place, Edinburgh EH10, who met costs of £109.50. Additional cost of £48
met by Atlantic Books. Hours: approximately 2 hrs plus travel.<i> (Registered 2 October 2011)</i> </div>
<div class="indent2">
21 September
2011, Ely Book Festival. Transport costs £264.72 paid by Atlantic
Books. Hours: approximately 2 hrs plus travel.<i> (Registered 2 October 2011)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
30 September
2011, Henley Festival. Transport costs £264.65 paid by Atlantic Books.
Festival organisers paid for additional transport and a gift of wine;
total cost £82. Hours: approximately 2 hrs plus travel. <i>(Registered 2 October 2011)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
5 October 2011,
Wimbledon Book Festival, 1 Archway Mews, 241 Putney Bridge Road, London
SW15 2PE. Transport costs of £58.15 plus VAT for my wife and me paid by
festival organisers. Flights Edinburgh to London paid by Atlantic
books; cost £138. Hours: approximately 2 hrs plus travel.<i> (Registered 15 October 2011)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
8 October 2011,
Cheltenham Book Festival. 109/11 Bath Road, Cheltenham GL53 7LS.
Transport and accommodation costs of £183.15 for my wife and me paid by
festival organisers. Hours: 24 hrs. <i>(Registered 15 October 2011)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
13 October 2011,
event organised by City Books, 23 Western Road, Hove BN3. Event costs
of £770 (plus VAT) plus transport and refreshment costs of £69 for my
wife and me paid by Atlantic Books. I also received a book token worth
£50. Hours: approximately 2 hrs plus travel.<i> (Registered 15 October 2011)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
22 October 2011,
Durham Book Festival. The cost of return transport for my wife and me
from Edinburgh to Durham; estimated cost £159, and our overnight
accommodation; estimated cost £109, was paid for by East Coast Trains
and Radisson Blu Hotels respectively, in their capacity as festival
sponsors. Hours: approximately 2 hrs plus travel. <i>(Registered 4 November 2011)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
28 October 2011,
Hebridean Book Festival, Stornaway. Air transport from Edinburgh to
Stornoway for my wife and me provided by Atlantic Books; cost £426.12.
No accommodation costs. Hours: approximately 2 hrs plus travel.<i> (Registered 4 November 2001)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
4 November 2011,
Lennoxlove Book Festival, Lennoxlove House, Haddington, East Lothian.
Accommodation provided for my wife and me; value £225. Hours:
approximately 2 hrs plus travel. <i>(Registered 4 November 2011)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
27 November
2011, Cambridge Wordfest Winter 2011, 7 Downing Place, Cambridge CB2
3EL. Transport costs from Edinburgh to Cambridge and on to London were
paid by Atlantic Books at a cost of £185 for myself and my wife.
Overnight accommodation was provided; value £205. <i>(Registered 28 November 2011)</i></div>
<div class="spacer">
</div>
<div class="indent">
Payments from The Times newspaper, 3 Thomas More Square, London E98 1TT:</div>
<div class="indent2">
28 March 2011, I
received six bottles of wine, approximate value £89, from The Times, in
respect of chairing a session at a conference organised by the
newspaper. Hours: 3 hrs approx. <i>(Registered 6 April 2011)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
8 July 2011, I received a fee of £600 for an article for The Times. Hours: 3-4 approx. <i>(Registered 8 July 2011)</i></div>
<div class="spacer">
</div>
<div class="indent">
Fees for speeches paid by JLA Associates, 80 Great Portland Street, London W1W 7NW:</div>
<div class="indent2">
20 October 2010,
I received a fee of £9,350 for addressing the Association of Financial
Markets in Europe. Hours: 6-7 hours approx. <i>(Registered 2 November 2010)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
26 November
2010, I received a fee of £10,200 for addressing a seminar organised by
Dewey & leBoeuf, solicitors, London. Hours: 6-7 approx. <i>(Registered 9 December 2010)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
1 February 2011,
I received a fee of £12,750 for speaking at The Centre of Political and
Foreign Affairs in Paris. Transport from Edinburgh to Paris and
returning to London was provided for myself and my wife; total cost
£1,902. Accommodation was also provided for myself and my wife; total
cost £1,345.77. Hours: approx 48 hrs. <i>(Registered 13 February 2011)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
7 April 2011, I received a fee of £10,200 for addressing a dinner organised by Cinven, London. Hours: approx 6 hrs. <i>(Registered 25 April 2011)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
7 April 2011, I
received a fee of £12,750 for addressing a dinner organised by
Macquarrrie Group, London. Hours: approx 6 hrs. <i>(Registered 25 April 2011)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
23 June 2011, I received a fee of £15,300 for speaking at an event organised by Bloombergs in London. Hours: 6-7 approx. <i>(Registered 8 July 2011)</i></div>
<div class="indent2">
16 November
2011, I received a fee of £10,500 for speaking at an event organised by
the Bank of New York Mellon/Pershing, in London. Hours: approx 5-6 hrs.
<i>(Registered 28 November 2011)</i></div>
<h3 class="shd">
6. Overseas visits</h3>
<div class="indent">
Name of donor: Meridiam</div>
<div class="indent">
Address of donor: 5 Allee Scheffer, L-2520 Luxembourg</div>
<div class="indent">
Amount of donation (or estimate of the probable value): train fare and accommodation in Paris; total value £937.61</div>
<div class="indent">
Destination of visit: Paris</div>
<div class="indent">
Date of visit: 26 April 2011</div>
<div class="indent">
Purpose of visit: attending seminar</div>
<div class="indent">
<i>(Registered 17 May 2011)</i></div>
Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-49290177851610689722013-09-30T22:43:00.004+01:002013-09-30T22:43:44.539+01:00It's not the Bedroom Tax, stupid!<b>It's not a tax</b><br />
It's neither a "spare room subsidy" nor a "bedroom tax", it's a benefit cut. It's not a subsidy because a subsidy is something paid to you in order to gain a benefit (real or perceived or, indeed, imaginary) for society and it's not a tax because a tax is something you pay to government to allow it to pay, in turn, for societal benefits. It's a cut to a welfare benefit, those tiny payments we collectively make to ensure that our society does not break down.<br />
<br />
Calling it a tax lets the politicians off the hook. Those who are cutting benefits want to pretend they are cutting a subsidy, those who are opposing want to call it a tax. It's not a subsidy; there is no societal benefit in someone having spare bedrooms (nor is there likely to be much of a personal advantage, given the extra costs inherent in having extra rooms in your house) and there has never been an argument put forward for one. It's not a tax; there is no payment from the welfare recipient to government here and to suggest that there it is a tax is to suggest that the recipients have an income from which can be deducted a tax. "Bedroom tax" is a handy short-hand but hides the horror of the policy of cutting Housing Benefit. When did we collectively lose the ability to see and call it for what it is? It's a benefit cut and it's an attack on the most vulnerable members of our society. At the heart of this policy debate is a void where humanity should be.<br />
<br />
<b>The cutting</b> <br />
The principle behind welfare benefits, surely, is that we do not leave any member of society without the means to afford the basics of survival; shelter, warmth, food, clothing. The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/jobseekers-allowance/what-youll-get">amounts paid</a> do not add up to a living, merely survival and it cannot be easy even to survive on those amounts. Nowhere can I find any research done by the UK Government into how much it costs to survive in any of our communities nor what benefits might accrue to society from paying them or varying the payments up or down. I can find plenty that successive governments have said about the costs of welfare, nothing about the effects of investing these resources in people and communities.<br />
<br />
The cuts to these benefits which have been implemented and those still
planned surely slice into the very heart of the principle behind them. Without any indication of the effects on people, both those receiving the welfare payments and those of us lucky enough to be in work, or on the communities in which we all live, the UK Government bill for welfare is to be cut. 10% is the target because that is the general target across UK Government departments. We are beginning to see some of the effects of some of these benefit cuts but there are still more to come - more cuts and more deleterious effects.<br />
<br />
<b>Housing Benefit cut</b> <br />
Why, though, has the opposition to these cuts focused so strongly on the cut to Housing Benefit and, to a great extent, ignored the other cuts? A jaundiced observer might suggest that it's because evictions are a striking visual for media coverage while the effects of other cuts are less obvious and harder to see, or that the heuristic "bedroom tax" makes for a good soundbite. It may be that the Westminster political game is more easily played where no flank is left open for the opposition to attack; no opportunity to be called profligate or the dreaded "tax and spend" label applied. The twisted logic of the search for a political soft spot in attack and the determination to armour every inch in defence leaves politics sclerotic and the people ignored. Principle has been abandoned in the heat of the scuffle in Westminster and democracy is the poorer for it. Budgets drive policy instead of policy driving budgets and the order is "we shall spend this, what can we do with it?" rather than "this is what we need to do, how much do we have to find?"<br />
<br />
The history of this <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/documents/upload/SNSG-05699.pdf">Housing Benefit cut </a>shows this. It was introduced under the Labour Government of Tony Blair with pilot schemes starting in late 2003 and went national under the Labour Government of Gordon Brown for private sector tenants and is still called Local housing Allowance for tenants in the private sector. The Tory / Lib Dem Government of David Cameron and Nick Clegg extended its reach to the social rented sector and this has become the policy football. Interestingly, it was the Tory/Lib Dem Government which <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN05638.pdf">introduced the extra bedroom for a carer</a> in the year before they extended it to social rented housing.<br />
<br />
Along the way the justification has always been cutting expenditure on Housing Benefit, sometimes joined by a diversionary hint at fairness. An example of the latter is the decision of the Labour Government to limit the number of bedrooms that can be paid for to five, the then Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, James Purnell saying that it was being limited because some people out of work were staying in houses they could not afford if they were in work. This, of course, missed the point that some Housing Benefit claimants are in work but cannot afford their rent. It also ignores the fact that limiting household bedrooms may lead to overcrowding.<br />
<br />
<b>Mitigation</b><br />
While making the latest round of Housing Benefit cuts in this sequence, the current UK Government offered up resources to local authorities to make discretionary payments to support households adversely affected by these changes. This was a fraction of the money it was cutting from Housing Benefit provision, of course, and it transferred responsibility for sorting out the mess created from Whitehall to town hall. In Scotland COSLA and the Scottish Government came to an agreement to fund the shortfall from their own limited budgets, the Scottish Government providing half of the money from its scarce resources, Scotland's councils finding the rest from within theirs.<br />
<br />
Some Scottish councils have updated their policies and pledged to ensure that they will do whatever they can to avoid evicting tenants who fall into arrears as a result of this Housing Benefit cut, others have still to commit.<br />
<br />
<b>Labour's Bill</b> <br />
Labour repeatedly called for the Scottish Government to support its Bill to mitigate the effects of this Housing Benefit cut. Neither the Bill nor a proposal for such a Bill existed for months after such calls started and, while <a href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/Bills/67996.aspx">the proposal has appeared</a> (strangely, <a href="http://calumcashley.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/labours-lies-and-liars-without-shame.html">lodged nearly a fortnight after </a>I pointed out that it didn't exist and quite clearly written in a hurry) there is still no Bill in spite of the proposed change being a simple one to write.<br />
<br />
The proposal as written is an exercise in political posturing but I thought it worth taking a look at it in any case. The proposal is that the 2001 Housing Act be amended so that arrears resulting from the cut in Housing Benefit would be disregarded by the court for the purposes of eviction proceedings, with the tenant proving how much of the arrears was caused by the benefit cut.<br />
<br />
That's a procedure that would take extra court time and create extra legal fees on both sides and would, as laid out in the proposal, leave landlords to pursue that debt as any other debt would be pursued. I find myself wondering how many Housing Benefit tenants have the wherewithal to pay off other debts, no matter how accrued, but I also know that most social landlords work hard to find solutions before even considering eviction and the route to court is not an easy path for them to take.<br />
<br />Housing associations in Scotland run very tight ships. They keep their rents low by keeping good control of their voids (empty houses) and doing all they can to make sure that tenants keep up with rental payments and by keeping management costs down, these are not businesses, they are not seeking to make profits. Of all of the professional housing officers I know and have known who work in housing associations I cannot think of one who goes willingly to evict a tenant and I cannot think of one who does not try to resolve tenancy issues at the earliest stage. To take that commitment and throw it back in their faces by insinuating that they would do otherwise is insulting and demeans those who have suggested it.<br />
<br />
On top of that the additional costs to housing associations has to be considered. When a housing association faces additional costs by an eviction process being dragged out, knocking its voids out of control and increasing legal fees its costs go up and it will be forced to put rents up, affecting all of its tenants. Since most tenants of housing associations are at the lower end of the income scale, this would have a serious effect on other tenants who would see more of their wages going to cover housing costs.<br />
<br />
This facile and disingenuous proposal is political
campaigning, not an attempt to find a solution. It is the armour of
saying "we tried to do something" and the seeking of a soft spot with
"they wouldn't join us in the thing we sought to do", it is a moral fraud by the bankrupt and a clear
example of what is so clearly wrong with the politics in Westminster and
we can do without it being imported.<br />
<br />
<b>Devolving Housing Benefit</b><br />
The UK Government recently leaked a proposal to <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-plan-to-devolve-bedroom-tax-1-3117303">devolve control of Housing Benefit</a> to Scotland if there was a No vote in the independence referendum. Leaving aside the fact that Scotland would take control of Housing Benefit after a yes vote anyway, the case for accepting this at face value is flawed. There is a general consensus in Scottish politics that this benefit cut is wrong - a consensus which is increasingly being mirrored in England - the SNP pledged some time ago to restore the payments after independence when Scotland has control of her own resources and Labour eventually came on board last week with Ed Miliband finally being forced into saying it. He should have said it much earlier but he was balancing the armouring against being called profligate with the possible political advantage (I bet Labour spends a fortune on polling before making a decision like that) and there appear to be suggestions that it may not be among the first priorities if Labour wins a UK General Election at some point in the future. Both parties are on the same side of the argument, though, so where's the problem with devolving it?<br />
<br />
Let's assume that the money spent on Housing Benefit at the time of this change would also come to Scotland (and there is no guarantee of that). That would mean that the cuts were already made to the budget so any Scottish Government intending to reverse the cuts would have to find additional money from elsewhere in the Scottish budget. Given that the Scottish budget is not exactly flush with spare cash, what would it cut? Health, education, social work, justice, local government finance, pensioner bus passes, what should be cut to put extra money into Housing Benefit? Given that some of these areas will be under additional pressure as a result of the less mentioned benefit cuts and the collateral effects of benefit cuts, where is the money to come from? Unless Scotland takes control of finances and can adjust the whole raft of government spending and financing where do we find the resource.<br />
<br />
It is an example of the UK Government armouring itself against the charge that it is imposing this cut on Scotland and seeking an opposition soft spot by offering control over the policy without control over the budget. It's a political bear trap with still no thought given to the issue of how to house those who cannot afford to house themselves.<br />
<br />
<b>A devolution issue</b><br />
The Housing Benefit cut and the political manoeuvring around make up an example of just what is wrong with devolution. Policy control without revenue control is a power mirage. While changes can be made they are far less significant than they could be with the ability to vary the revenue and expenditure streams to adapt public spending to suit the policy intentions.<br />
<br />
Without the flexibility to change the large areas of expenditure still controlled in London Scottish resources cannot be directed to best serve the people who live here. Similarly, without the flexibility to adjust where all the income streams are coming from the burden cannot be lifted from those who can't afford it.<br />
<br />
I see Labour activists often calling for the SNP Scottish Government to mitigate the effects of this cut, saying that this was why the Scottish Parliament was reconvened. Much as I marvel at their lack of ambition for Holyrood, even with the limited power it has, and wonder why this is the one benefit cut that they want mitigated, I find myself wondering a few things -<br />
<br />
Why should a Government just mitigate what is being done to the people who elected it rather than trying to change the circumstances that are causing the pain? Mitigation is only a reduction in severity - if your hand was burning on a cooker top would you just put ice on top to mitigate the pain or would you take your hand away?<br />
<br />
If Holyrood had been here with these powers in the 1980s and had mitigated the effects of the then UK Government would we still have half of Ravenscraig? Would it have been able to afford to have mitigated that at all?<br />
<br />
If the next UK Government target is cutting benefit payments to young single people, should we mitigate that as well?<br />
<br />
Should the Scottish Government be mitigating the cuts to the armed services in Scotland by setting up a rival army?<br />
<br />
How do we mitigate against the effects in Scotland of the UK Government's asylum and refugee policies?<br />
<br />
How do we mitigate against the UK Government abandoning the ECHR?<br />
<br />
The Scottish Government is already mitigating against the damaging economic policies of the UK Government but it can't do enough, it doesn't have the power nor the resources to do enough. Should Scotland just shrug our shoulders and say we tried?<br />
<br />
How do we mitigate against the void at the centre of policy making where humanity should be and how do we mitigate against a damaged political system that poisons the well of democracy?<br />
<br />
It's time to stop mitigating and start acting.Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-80140776409431274972013-09-13T18:04:00.003+01:002013-09-13T18:18:55.017+01:00When shall we three meet again, in thunder, lightning or in rain?<b>Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow</b> <br />
GARL has become a political Banquo, rising to haunt Labour's Macbeth. GARL, once Glasgow Labour's greatest friend now looks as if it will be the spectre to haunts that party into madness (OK, that's a wee bit dramatic, but give me a bit of licence). Yesterday JoLa tottered onto her pins in Parliament to spin an outrageous untruth that the Government had bought land for GARL and later sold it back to the chap who had originally owned it at an enormous loss which was, of course, a gain for the chap who had sold it and bought it back again and that there was something dodgy about it.<br />
<br />
Well, JoLa was protected by the absolute privilege afforded MSPs during Parliamentary proceedings, which is lucky for her because the businessman involved, John McGlynn, was beelin that his honesty had been called into question and was ready for a battle. I know nothing much about the chap at all but he certainly looked angry when he was interviewed for the news broadcasts which made it all the more surprising to see the way that<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03b3jyv/Newsnight_Scotland_12_09_2013/"> James Kelly represented Labour on Newsnicht</a>. In the gallant JaKe rode to defend the honour of someone or something or besmirch the honour of someone else or something else (it wasn't quite clear, you see) and he flung caution to the wind, casting out aspersions (never aspirations) hither and thon, wantonly throwing his own career on the pyre that JoLa had built. He appeared at some points to suggest that the Scottish Government was credulous and Mr McGlynn had taken nefarious advantage of it.<br />
<br />
Given that Newsnicht doesn't offer privilege to guard against an action for defamation, JaKe may be in a spot of bother and he can be fairly certain that his good mate JoLa won't be repeating her allegations outside of the protection of Parliament. Good luck there, JaKe, we salute you, brave and senseless soldier.<br />
<br />
<b>Glasgow Council</b><br />
I'm told that there were claims<b> </b>similar to JoLa's made in the rarefied atmosphere of Glasgow Council where the heady intoxification of debate led Councillor Alastair Watson to make the same criticisms of the Government and, I suppose, thereby of Mr McGlynn. That surprised me because AlWa should have known better - he was on the board of the organisation that actually bought the land. Not really a bit-part player, either, he was Chair until <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/8516202.stm">he stood down for health reasons</a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/null"> </a>in 2010. Good to see <a href="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/1/?ui=2&shva=1#inbox/1411810125a8d7c6">he recovered quickly enough </a>in 2010 to take a senior role and to stand for re-election in 2012 and take up a senior post as<a href="http://www.glasgow.gov.uk/councillorsandcommittees/member.asp?id=45&t=Councillor+Alistair+Watson"> </a><span style="font-weight: normal;"><a href="http://www.glasgow.gov.uk/councillorsandcommittees/member.asp?id=45&t=Councillor+Alistair+Watson">Executive Member for Sustainability and Transport</a>, allowing Glasgow to benefit from his enormous experience on the board of Strathclyde Partnership for Transport.</span><br />
<br />
<b>SPT</b><br />
The land at the centre of the hoo-ha was actually bought by Strathclyde Partnership for Transport in 2008 when AlWa was Chair, so how did he not know about it? Well, let's be fair, there was a lot to do on the board of SPT in <a href="http://t.co/krWUPJepXC">the spring of 2008 when the purchase was made</a>. They had to prepare for the trip to Manchester <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-15371439">to watch Ranger in the UEFA cup final</a>, for example, and there was an awful lot of expenses claims to be made for all kinds of busy trips abroad.<br />
<br />
<b>Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing</b><br />
It could all have been avoided, you know, if only Labour had asked someone<b> </b>in the know. AlWa's memory is obviously a bit suspect but they could surely have asked someone at SPT, some friendly face or other. JoLa could have asked, she could have asked Archie, Archie's on SPT on behalf of Glasgow Council, she could have asked him - Councillor Archie Graham,<span style="font-weight: normal;"> Depute Leader of the Council, Executive Member for the Commonwealth Games, SPT board member. He wasn't there at the time of the land purchase but he's there now and could ask. Why ask Archie? She's married to him - it would be easy.</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-weight: normal;">Instead the day was foul but not fair, Labour's horses will be wild and eating each other. I'm sure JoLa will be looking forward to a time w</span>hen the hurlyburly's done, when the battle's lost and won. She could just resign as leader of the opposition now and make it easier on herself.Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-37479808158239057872013-09-12T20:11:00.006+01:002013-09-12T20:12:11.962+01:00Labour's lies and the liars without shame<b>The Bedroom Tax Lie</b> <br />
More than a week ago Labour boasted of its 'action' on the Bedroom Tax, <a href="http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/press/entry/scottish-labour-action-on-the-bedroom-tax">Jackie Baillie repeated that she was bringing forward a Bill </a>to end evictions for these arrears. We've seen what<a href="http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/record-view-bedroom-tax-eviction-2203084"> Labour's actual action on the bedroom tax </a>is, and we know <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-labour-noncommittal-over-bedroom-tax-1-3080460">how confused Labour is</a> over it, but let's leave that aside for the moment and remember JaBa's Bill, this legislation so fiercely touted.<br />
<br />
Labour politicians have been seeking to put pressure on SNP politicians by demanding they support the Bill. Their Deputy Leader in Scotland, Anas Sarwar, even brandished a copy of the Bill during the STV with Nicola Sturgeon, demanding that the DFM sign the Bill there and then. AnSa, it would appear, let his spin-doctors' sense of the dramatic cloud his better judgement. There's a bit of a problem with this Bill, though.<br />
<br />
It doesn't exist.<br />
<br />
As of 19.20 on the 12th of September 2013 it does not appear in the<a href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/Bills/576.aspx"> list of current Bills</a> on the Scottish Parliament website. Some may say "but it's a proposed Bill" but then I'd have to direct you to <a href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/Bills/29731.aspx">the list of proposals for Member's Bills </a>which also, quite clearly, lacks any Bill of that description. No Bill exists nor does a proposal nor even a draft proposal. That is a cruel deception played by Labour, to pretend to care, to suggest there may be succour and hope for those currently being affected by the Bedroom Tax and those who will be affected by the Bedroom Tax in the future.<br />
<br />
While JaBa and AnSa take their comfortable salaries and go home at night safe in the knowledge that the roofs over their heads are likely to stay there, they appear to find no compassion for those who are really facing the effects of this policy.<br />
<br />
The Scottish Government is doing what it can to mitigate the effects of this UK Government policy and SNP councils the length and breadth of Scotland are doing what they can for the people affected and none of them are claiming it's a full solution. Labour's lies in this instance are cruel beyond belief.<br />
<br />
<b>The smear at FMQs</b><br />
That indication of how low Labour politicians are prepared to stoop is, perhaps, the worst, but any idea we might have had that this was not going to be a tactic used by many Labour politicians was dashed today at First Minister's Questions in Holyrood. The <a href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/OfficialReport/2013-09-12_GQs_and_FMQs.pdf">transcription is in a pdf</a> but will be up on the site in the normal way tomorrow.<br />
<br />
Leader of the Labour Party in Scotland (<a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/euan-mccolm-lamont-s-silence-on-falkirk-will-speak-volumes-1-2992337">except Falkirk, apparently)</a>, Johann Lamont, asked about a deal where land had been bought for the proposed <a href="http://www.thomsoninteractive.com/garl/">Glasgow Airport Rail Link </a>and later sold after GARL was cancelled. JoLa's contention was that there was something dodgy going on.<br />
<br />
The land had been bought from a businessman, Mr John McGlynn for £840,000, according to JoLa, and sold back to him later for £50,000, giving him a £790,000 profit and she inferred that it had been a dirty deal. Here's a direct quote from her - <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The land was bought in 2008 for £840,000 from a businessman called John McGlynn, who was then a donor to the Scottish Conservative Party. Since then, of course, Mr McGlynn has been on something of a political journey; he now supports the yes campaign. Since then, he has been appointed to the Scottish Government national economic forum and he has bought back the land from the Scottish Government for £50,000 and made a profit of £790,000. Is there some connection here or has Mr McGlynn just benefited from the First Minister’s gross incompetence with public funds?</blockquote>
<br />
She later made sure that there was no mistaking her allegation - <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
the Scottish Government bought the land for £840,000; it was signed off by the Scottish ministers; and the Scottish Government then sold the land for £50,000</blockquote>
and -<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
how does the First Minister justify buying a piece of land for £840,000 and then selling it back to the person he bought it from for just £50,000?</blockquote>
and -<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Can the First Minister explain to them either why the issue has nothing to do with him or how he managed to buy a piece of land with their money for £840,000 and sell it for just £50,000?</blockquote>
<br />
By 5 o'clock Mr McGlynn was <a href="http://news.stv.tv/west-central/239305-salmond-faces-questions-over-sale-of-glasgow-airport-rail-link-land/">demanding an apology for the slur</a>, Herald political journalist Tom Gordon had <a href="https://twitter.com/ScottishPol/status/378174840395411457/photo/1">discovered a document </a>showing that the land had been bought by Labour councillors on Strathclyde Partnership for Transport, and it had become clear that Labour had already been told this during the answer to <a href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/parliamentarybusiness/28862.aspx?r=8467">the first question of General Questions </a>last week. Here is an excerpt from last week's questioning -<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="rtTemplate">
<a class="or_speaker" href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/msps/currentmsps/Mark-Griffin-MSP.aspx" id="ReportView_ReportViewer1_tvwMain_i0_i1_i0_i2_ctl00_lnkName" target="_blank" title="Griffin, Mark - Scottish Labour - Central Scotland">Mark Griffin: </a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/null" name="Cont_1536671"></a><span id="scrolltoCid_1536671"> ... the last plot of Glasgow airport rail link land was
sold back to the original owner for £50,000, which, at almost £800,000
less than they were originally paid, highlights the folly of the
Government’s scorched-earth policy on GARL. What cumulative loss was
made by the Government in disposing of land that had been purchased for
the GARL project?</span>
</div>
<a class="or_speaker" href="http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/msps/currentmsps/Keith-Brown-MSP.aspx" id="ReportView_ReportViewer1_tvwMain_i0_i1_i0_i3_ctl00_lnkName" target="_blank" title="Brown, Keith - Scottish National Party - Clackmannanshire and Dunblane">Keith Brown: </a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/null" name="Cont_1536672"></a><span id="scrolltoCid_1536672">First, I welcome Mark Griffin to his new position. I also congratulate him on his engagement over the summer.<br /><br />Mark
Griffin’s question has a fundamental flaw. The land that was purchased
that he mentioned was initially purchased by Strathclyde partnership for
transport, not by the Government, although the Government subsequently
bought it from SPT. He might wish to address some questions to SPT about
that.</span></blockquote>
<br />
<span id="scrolltoCid_1536672">So Labour's leader knew what the truth was - or should have, if she had taken the trouble to ask her Transport spokesman - and still made the allegation. JoLa was trying to score petty political points but, in doing so, she make serious allegations about the conduct of Scottish Government Ministers and the First Minister in particular when she knew that there was no substance to them whatsoever.</span><br />
<br />
<span id="scrolltoCid_1536672">That is something that politicians might be expected to accept as being part of the job in the rough and tumble of politics - although it shouldn't be - but her equal implied attack on Mr McGlynn who was not in Parliament to defend himself had no such justification. It was shameful and shoddy.</span><br />
<span id="scrolltoCid_1536672"><br /></span>
<span id="scrolltoCid_1536672">JoLa, JaBa and AnSa have shown once again over the past week that they are not fit to hold public office. They may not be in Ministerial office, they may not have any power, but opposition is also laden with responsibility and those offices should also be held with honour. People who are not prepared to act with honour have no place in our democracy, they should all think on their recent actions.</span><br />
<br />
<span id="scrolltoCid_1536672">JoLa as leader of the opposition, though, should shoulder more responsibility than most and, given that she has so spectacularly failed, she should resign. I don't expect her to do so, nor do I expect any of them to consider their behaviour; they have no shame. </span>Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-4608175886003399622013-09-09T22:17:00.000+01:002013-09-09T22:17:28.801+01:00Fantasy PollingI was ignoring <a href="http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/09/how-many-scots-know-what-the-scottish-parliament-does/">the Ashcroft 'poll' </a>on the basis that it was so schonky that it might have been invented as a tale by CS Lewis during his morning ablutions but some eejits <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/poll-scots-to-reject-independence-re-elect-snp-1-3082139">took </a>the<a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/polls-claim-snp-focus-is-wrong.22106508"> thing </a>at <a href="http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/politics/poll-finds-majority-see-too-much-focus-on-independence-1.128583">face</a> value and never bothered looking at it properly. Some of this may be due to a lack of staff in newsrooms these days, if we're to be charitable. Some people have already explained some of the problems with it, including <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/scottish-independence-blog/2013/sep/09/scottish-independence-scotland?CMP=twt_gu">Severin Carrell</a> at the Grauniad, <a href="http://brightgreenscotland.org/index.php/2013/09/no-campaign-straight-up-lie-about-lord-ashcroft-indyref-poll/">Gary Dunion</a> at Bright Green and even <a href="http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2013/09/do-lord-ashcrofts-polls-tell-us-anything-new/">John Curtice</a> at What Scotland Thinks.<br />
<br />
The published 'results' actually came from three different polls. Here are some things that are wrong with the large poll:<br />
<br />
<b>1.</b> There is no indication of who did the poll, it may have been a call centre in the Turks and Caicos islands and some random people doing doorstep interviews. There's no indication that those conducting the polls have any idea what they're doing, whether they're members of <a href="http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/objects.html">the Polling Council</a>, or what rigor they apply to any analysis they do. The results are presented in a similar style to <a href="http://www.populus.co.uk/Poll/Voting-Intention-22/">Populus </a>or <a href="http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/2/political.htm">ComRes </a>but those companies would publish the results if they'd carried out the research.<br />
<br />
<b>2.</b> The<a href="http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/files2/stats/annual-review-2011/j21285200.htm"> age demographics </a>('weighted' figures) in the large telephone are out, 18-24 years olds over-represented by 8.6%; those in the 25-34 bracket under-represented by 10.4%; in 35-44 under by 18.2%; in 45-54 over by 3.3%; in 55-64 over by 11.5%; and those who have passed the 65 year mark over-represented by 6.5%. Given that we see in poll after poll that there are differences in independence and party support in teh different age groups, this is important.<br />
<br />
<b>3.</b> I had a quick look and can't find Scottish figures for socio-economic groups (feel free to look harder than me) but these are the 'weighted' figures given for them - AB; 2910: C1; 3100: C2; 2139: DE; 1677. Households are classified on the SEG of the chief income earner and include people retired from those professions <a href="http://www.marketresearchworld.net/content/view/2918/78/">and are</a>; A- Higher managerial, administrative, professional e.g. Chief executive, senior civil servant, surgeon; B - Intermediate managerial, administrative, professional e.g. bank manager, teacher; C1- Supervisory, clerical, junior managerial e.g. shop floor supervisor, bank clerk, sales person; C2 - Skilled manual workers e.g. electrician, carpenter; D- Semi-skilled and unskilled manual workers e.g. assembly line worker, refuse collector, messenger; E - Casual labourers, pensioners, unemployed e.g. pensioners without private pensions and anyone living on basic benefits.<br />
<br />
The SEG ratio used by <a href="http://yougov.co.uk/news/categories/politics/">Yougov </a>for Scotland in the <a href="http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2rnh7dcu0g/YG-Archive-Devo-Plus-results-220813-Scottish-independence.pdf">DevoPlus poll</a> recently used A, B, and C1 together and C2, D and E together for percentages of 47% in ABC1 and 53% in C2DE. The large Ashcroft poll used a split of 61.2% ABC1 and 38.8% C2DE. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.panelbase.com/news/index.html">Panelbase</a>, in the <a href="http://www.panelbase.com/news/SNPPollTables020903.pdf">SNP-commissioned poll</a>, had AB at 20.7% while Ashcroft had that group at 29.6% - a whopping 9% bigger chunk of the population. Panelbase for C1 was 27.3% while Ashcroft was 31.5%; C2 Panelbase 15%, Ashcroft 21.8%; DE Panelbase 37%, Ashcroft 17.1%.<br />
<br />
Ashcroft has massively overcounted the most affluent members of Scottish society and massively undercounted the least affluent. Given that we've seen a difference in independence and party support in the different SEGs, this is also important.<br />
<br />
<b>4.</b> There are references to notes in the results (letters beside the numbers) but the notes are missing. Notes often give important information about the results and certainly put them in context - why would they be missing? Here's a possible explanation. As John Curtice noted, Ashcroft took two polls after the large one which showed independence in a better place than in the large one, but he used the figures from the earliest in this strange release. That looks likes an attempt to mislead or misdirect. Are the notes missing because they were at the end of the tables and the other questions and answers didn't suit the agenda?<br />
<br />
Ashcroft isn't a political party, it's not as if some of the questions he asks are for campaign planning and need to be kept confidential to avoid giving opponents an advantage. Unless, of course, being a Tory chap, he's giving that party some advantages in terms of polling information, in which case, I hope the donation is declared. Perhaps Better Together is getting the advantage of the secret questions - although that particular organisation has promised not to take donations from abroad and I understand that the noble lord is a tax exile. In any case, we don't know what the notes were and so we don't know whether they would have changed our impression of the results.<br />
<br />
<b>The other polls</b><br />
I thought about doing the same for the other polls but, to be honest, I don't see the point. I did do the SEGs for them, though, and they're below. Large is the Ashcroft abomination examined above, VI is the Holyrood voting intention and FUP is the Follow-Up-Poll - the other two Ashcroft 'polls' re-released today to provide a headline on the cheap. The Panelbase and YouGov polls are there for comparison - you'll note how close these two are on SEG.<b> </b><br />
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<b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Ashcroft polls</span></b></div>
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<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 36.05pt;" valign="bottom" width="48">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">FUP</span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 36.05pt;" valign="bottom" width="48">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">VI</span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 44.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Large</span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 53.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="71">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">SNP</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td nowrap="" style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">AB</span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 36.05pt;" valign="bottom" width="48">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">32.3</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 36.05pt;" valign="bottom" width="48">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">28.3</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 44.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">29.6</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 53.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="71">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">20.7</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">C1</span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 36.05pt;" valign="bottom" width="48">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">30.3</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 36.05pt;" valign="bottom" width="48">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">33.2</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 44.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">31.5</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 53.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="71">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">27.3</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">C2</span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 36.05pt;" valign="bottom" width="48">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">20.1</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 36.05pt;" valign="bottom" width="48">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">12.6</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 44.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">21.8</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 53.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="71">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">15.0</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">DE</span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 36.05pt;" valign="bottom" width="48">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">17.3</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 36.05pt;" valign="bottom" width="48">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">25.9</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 44.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">17.1</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 53.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="71">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">37.0</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52"><br /></td>
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 36.05pt;" valign="bottom" width="48"><br /></td>
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 36.05pt;" valign="bottom" width="48"><br /></td>
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 44.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="60"><br /></td>
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 53.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="71"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52"><br /></td>
<td colspan="3" nowrap="" style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 117.05pt;" valign="bottom" width="156">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Ashcroft polls</span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 53.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="71">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">YouGov</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52"><br /></td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 36.05pt;" valign="bottom" width="48">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">FUP</span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 36.05pt;" valign="bottom" width="48">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">VI</span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 44.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Large</span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 53.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="71">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">DevoPlus</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 9;">
<td nowrap="" style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">ABC1</span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 36.05pt;" valign="bottom" width="48">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">62.6</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 36.05pt;" valign="bottom" width="48">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">61.5</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 44.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">61.2</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 53.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="71">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">47.0</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 10; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">C2DE</span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 36.05pt;" valign="bottom" width="48">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">37.4</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 36.05pt;" valign="bottom" width="48">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">38.5</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 44.95pt;" valign="bottom" width="60">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">38.8</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 53.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="71">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">53</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</b><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<b>
</b>Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7466643334422987322.post-23994060625326335252013-09-04T19:55:00.001+01:002013-09-04T19:55:46.181+01:00Poll - 39.7% Yes, 41.4% No, 18.9% DK<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
There was a poll…</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A rare poll, a rattling poll…</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A poll down indyref-ee-oh</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So, see that <a href="http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/news-and-events/scottish-opinion-monitor-scottish-support-for-independence-falls-to-25">TNS-BMRB
poll</a> that gave such surprising results?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>There were lots of comments about how it wasn’t weighted to the 2011
election results given that the question was asked.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One chap, a <a href="http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2013/09/now-the-dont-knows-have-it-new-tns-bmrb-poll/">certain
Professor John Curtice, said</a>: </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
“Still, here perhaps we should enter another small word of
caution. Unlike either YouGov or Panelbase, TNS do not weight their results so
that their respondents’ reports of how they voted at the last election (the
2010 UK election in the case of YouGov, the 2011 Holyrood contest in
Panelbase’s case) more or less match the actual outcome of that election.
However TNS did actually ask their sample how they voted in 2011 – and found
that rather fewer said they voted SNP than indicated they backed Labour. Such a
divergence from what actually happened in 2011 is bound to raise questions
about whether TNS’s sample adequately reflects the nation’s political balance.”</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So I thought I’d do a wee calculation to weight it the way
that Panelbase weights it and the result is Yes 39.7%, No 41.4%, Don’t Know
18.9%.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Before anyone feels the blue touch-paper burning their bum,
this isn’t the way to weight a poll properly; it’s just a calculation for my
own amusement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Also, there are some parts
of the calculation that I’d criticise if anyone else did this calculation (feel
free to tell someone).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Here’s how I did
the calculation with instructions for you to follow if you’re exceedingly bored
– </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span>Open
the tables for the poll - <a href="http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/assets-uploaded/documents/som-data-tables-august-2013_1378220251.pdf">http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/assets-uploaded/documents/som-data-tables-august-2013_1378220251.pdf</a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span>Go
to Table 1 on Page 3</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span>Copy
the weighted numbers against the parties in the end box (Vote in 2011) – ignore
“Can’t remember” and “Did not vote” because those who can’t remember probably
didn’t vote and people who didn’t vote in 2011 are least likely to vote in 2014
and the two categories together add up to 42% against the 2011 turnout of 50%
(if I remember rightly).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That, and it made
the calculation all watery (I don’t have the raw data, just the tables).</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span>Note
that there is no vote percentage there for Green, SSP, Solidarity or any party
not in the big three plus the Lib Dems – they must all be included in “Other”.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">5.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span>Calculate
what percentage those numbers translate to in terms of party share (SNP comes
out at 36.5%, for example).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">6.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span>Compare
that to the actual 2011 result to get a ratio.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">7.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span>Use
the ration to change the numbers to what they would be had it been weighted to the
2011 result.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">8.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span>Bob
is no longer your Auntie but is now showing the contest neck and neck – hoopla!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">9.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span>There
are plenty caveats but you can work them out for yourself.</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Here’s a wee table (just copied from my spreadsheet) -</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse; margin-left: 4.65pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 616px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td nowrap="" style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">poll</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">% </span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Yes</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">No</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">DK</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">2011 const</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Yes</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">No</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">DK</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">SNP</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">215</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">36.50</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">119</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">42</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">54</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">45.39</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">148</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">52</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">67</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Lab</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">231</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">39.22</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">32</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">149</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">49</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">31.69</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">26</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">120</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">40</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Con</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">58</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">9.85</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">3</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">48</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">7</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">13.91</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">11</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">68</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">10</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">LD</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">68</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">11.54</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">8</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">48</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">13</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">7.93</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">82</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">33</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">9</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Oth</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">17</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">2.89</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">2</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">11</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">4</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">1.5</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">1</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">6</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">2</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">589</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">268</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">279</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">128</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">39.71026974</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">41.37094892</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">18.91878134</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If you want even more fun, use the unweighted figures and
you get even closer – 40.1% Yes, 41.1% No, 18.8% Don’t Know.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Here’s the table:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse; margin-left: 4.65pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 616px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td nowrap="" style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">poll</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">% </span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Yes</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">No</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">DK</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">2011 const</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Yes</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">No</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">DK</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">SNP</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">230</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">39.05</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">119</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">42</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">54</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">45.39</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">138</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">49</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">63</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Lab</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">249</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">42.28</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">32</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">149</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">49</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">31.69</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">24</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">112</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">37</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Con</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">63</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">10.70</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">3</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">48</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">7</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">13.91</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">10</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">62</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">9</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">LD</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">69</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">11.71</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">8</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">48</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">13</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">7.93</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">81</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">32</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">9</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Oth</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">18</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">3.06</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">2</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">11</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">4</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">1.5</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">1</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">5</span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">2</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 39.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="52">
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">629</span></div>
</td>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">119</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">40.07452711</span></div>
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<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 63.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="84">
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">18.81433321</span></div>
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Next week I’m making a submarine out of a sponge and a bar
of soap.</div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-qformat:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";
mso-fareast-language:EN-US;}
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<![endif]-->Calum Cashleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01059728094634130387noreply@blogger.com2