Aren't the Lib Dems cute?

Delighted to see that, even when they've hard a good, hard sandpapering, Lib Dem members can still dream up ways in which the earth moved for them. It's almost like the 'still arithmetically possible' calculations that we all go through as Scotland football fans, but with eyelashes fluttering and upturned eyes, a hope in either hand and a look of supplication on their wee faces.

A Lib Dem chap by the name of Young Degsy - who turns out not to be young at all, tsk, tsk, tsk - left a comment on an earlier post saying he wants to take the swing 2004-2009, apply it to 2005 (honestly), add Nick Clegg's shoe size, take away the number you first thought of, multiply by the square root of Scotland's latest 20-20 cricket score and thus prove that the Lib Dems will win North and Leith at the next election. I paraphrase, of course.

Here are the 2004-2009 swings:
Lab to SNP 5.78%
Con to SNP 3.41%
Lib to SNP 3.46%
Gre to SNP 3.46%

Of course, these are not directly comparable elections because the 2004 ones were declared on the old Westminster boundaries (the current Holyrood boundaries) and the 2009 ones were declared on the new Westminster boundaries.

You could, of course, apply the swing from 2007 to 2009 with the same caveats and that gives a 6% swing from Labour to the SNP and a 2.4% swing from the Lib Dems to the SNP as well as a 7.1% swing from the Lib Dems to the Conservatives - Labour and the Lib Dems being the big losers.

The Conservative movement would have had me worried had it not been that adding back in the rest of the constituency brings the swing back in the SNP's favour against them as well. That would be the SNP taking votes from each of our three main opponents. The Greens are not included here because they didn't stand a constituency candidate, but you can add their Additional Member result into the mix and you find that they've had a better two years 2007-2009 than the Lib Dems, adding about 4.8% to their vote.

You wouldn't trust the Lib Dems to count your change on the bus but you've got to admit that their naked ambition, unfettered by talent, is pretty cute - kinda.

Mind how you go!