I would bet that it's worrying the bejasus out of Labour and the Lib Dems as well.
Being an anorak kind of guy, I checked on the regional votes cast in the May 2007 election.
We, us SNP types, Scotland's Party, won some surprising victories - we won the regional vote in Edinburgh North and Leith, for example, as well as Edinburgh Central and Edinburgh East.
In fact, the SNP won Edinburgh (all six city seats combined). Here's the result -
SNP 46,137
Labour 44,359
Lib Dem 30,952
Conservative 30,634
Green 16,923
Marvellous. So here are the 28 seats where the SNP won on the regional vote (not in any kind of order, I've just numbered them so you don't have to count them)
- Edinburgh North and Leith
- Edinburgh Central
- Edinburgh East and Musselburgh
- Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
- Ross, Skye and Inverness West
- West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
- Dumbarton
- Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale
- Aberdeen Central
- Aberdeen North
- Aberdeen South
- Kilmarnock and Loudoun
- Argyll and Bute
- Central Fife
- Stirling
- Dundee West
- Dundee East
- Cunninghame North
- Glasgow Govan
- Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber
- Moray
- Western Isles
- Livingston
- North Tayside
- Perth
- Angus
- Banff and Buchan
- Gordon
Orkney, Shetland, Edinburgh West and North East Fife were the only ones they won. Doesn't bode well for them in the Westminster election, does it?
Tory chaps? Not bad considering where they've been climbing from -
Pentlands, Ayr, Galloway and Upper Nithsdale, and, of course, Roxburgh and Berwickshire. Four seats.
Even more fun - the SNP was in second place in a further 41 seats and third in only four - Dumfries, Eastwood, Ayr, and Roxburgh and Berwickshire - we didn't come lower than third anywhere - the only party to manage this.
Interestingly, the Greens beat the Lib Dems and the Conservatives in two Glasgow seats - Govan and Maryhill, but didn't do so well in Lothian which was their original seat capture - only in Edinburgh North and Leith did they climb above 5th, edging out the Conservatives.
The Lib Dems came fifth in Govan and fourth in another 41 seats, third in 18 and second in only nine seats. There were only 26 seats where the Tories were fourth or fifth, and they picked up 36 third places and 7 second places.
Labour - 37 wins, 16 second places, 13 third places and 7 fourth places.
Looks like the SNP is best placed. Now then, let's replicate that at Westminster...
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