I was having a wee look at the opinion poll done by Yougov for the Scotsman and noticed something that made me look again. Remember the constituency polling figures were SNP 34%, Lab 40% Con 14%, LD 8%, but the unweighted figures were SNP 506, Lab 403, Con 138, LD 78 (no unweighted figures given for the Greens) - that would give the SNP 45% of the distribution among the four largest parties, Labour just under 36%, Conservatives just over 12% and the LibDems 7%.
I appreciate why the weighting is done and how it should increase the accuracy of the poll but I question whether Yougov might have gone a little far. The change made by the weighting saw the SNP have 113 votes removed while the three other parties all saw increases (the LibDem vote wasn't increased by enough to make a difference to the percentage they got but it was increased). If memory serves, Yougov has been a little off in its Scottish weighting before. It's just a wee question I've got hanging about there, but maybe Scotland's Party is actually ahead just now. Of course, even if the poll with its strange weighting is accurate, we're still ahead of where we were in November of 2006 when the SNP was at 32% in the constituency vote and 28% in the regional vote compared to the current 34% and 31%.
Och, what an interesting wee time we have ahead of us!