Tuesday 9 June 2009

European election in Edinburgh North and Leith

Here's the result of the European election in Edinburgh North and Leith:

SNP 20.5% (4965)
Labour 17.9% (4324)
Lib 17.4% (4201)
Con 17.4% (4199)
Green 16.6% (4014)

The Greens are galloping up on the back of the pack, threatening to overtake someone. Given that the Conservatives are now neck and neck with the Lib Dems, and the Conservatives are slipping by less than the Lib Dems, it looks like the Greens will be outpacing the Lib Dems soon.

Labour's still managing to keep its nose ahead of the Conservatives - by half of one per cent - but the magnificent SNP performance saw us open up a 2.5% gap on them.

That places the SNP in pole position to take this seat whenever the General Election is called. Labour was always odds on to lose this seat and it was a four-way contest to see who would take it from them. We've now established ourselves as the main challenger and now it's our job to make sure that we stay ahead and win the election.

An interesting comparison is the one between the 2005 Westminster result and this result -

SNP up by 10.5%
Labour down 16%
Conservative down 1%
Lib Dem down 12%
Greens up 10.5%

Some of the minor parties took a bite out of the vote, but the swings are:

Labour to SNP - 13.25%
Conservative to SNP - 5.75%
Lib Dem to SNP - 11.25%

That makes it interesting!

Mind how you go!


ccfc said...

It will be fun to see if the LibDums revise their bar charts. I don't think they want to include these figures.

youngdegsy said...

I don't think the bar charts will change. And looking at a swing from the 2005 general election is highly bogus. A real psephologist would compare it with the last election of the same type, which was in 2004. The swing from 2004 to 2009 applied to the last general election result in Edinburgh North and Leith would see the Lib Dems gaining the seat from Labour, and the SNP ... fourth. Oops.

James said...

Thanks for posting these statistics - do you have the entire 13-party breakdown?


Calum Cashley said...

I might still have it (got it on paper and punched it into a spreadsheet for keeping). I'll have a look when I get a chance.