Monday, 15 June 2009

Opinion poll - even better

That Yougov poll - it's even better than I thought. The results are up on the polling company's website now and show the following:

SNP 31%
Lab 28%
Con 17%
Lib 16%
Other 8%

Holyrood constituency:
SNP 39%
Lab 26%
Con 14%
Lib 14%
Other 7%

Holyrood Additional Member (list):
SNP 34%
Lab 26%
Con 14%
Lib 13%
Other 14%

Others split as
Green 7%
SSP 3%
Sol 1%
Other 3%

And so we come to the point in Scottish politics where we have Other Others ...

However, and all that, I calculate that this means that the SNP would get oodles and oodles of seats - actually, I haven't done any calculations on it at all, I've only just seen it and thought I'd share, but I am comforted by a consistent gap opening up there and the indications from the detailed results that we are now gathering support from all over now, that supporters of other parties are more and more prepared to back the SNP. Interesting, too, that support for the other parties now equals the Conservatives and exceeds the Lib Dems on the AM vote - and that the Greens take a straight 12% of the Lib Dem vote.

What's equally interesting is that this poll was done from the 2nd to the 4th of June and a UK-wide Yougov poll done a week and a bit later (11th to 12th) appears to show (on a small sample, remember) somewhat similar results - us and Labour strengthening slightly, Conservatives staying where they are and the Lib Dems weakening. It also indicates that 59% of Scots think that Gordon Brown is doing badly as Prime Minister, 75% of us think that the economy is in bad shape (31% think that it's right down the drain), 39% of us think it's a bad thing that Peter Mandelson is running the country, and half of us think that the appointment of Alan Sugar was a "silly gimmick".

Most fascinating and I look forward to many more. Mind how you go!

1 comment:

Will said...

For the record, I get the Holyrood poll coming out as SNP 52 (44 constituencies, including Ed Trinity & Leith, plus 8 regional), Labour 37 (15+22), Cons 17 (6+11), LD 14 (8+6), Green 8, 1 Independent if she carries on.

In terms of high-profile casualties, I shall refrain from Schadenfreude on this occasion and shall instead humbly suggest that Iain Gray might want to look again at Labour's policy of not letting Constituency candidates stand on the List.

Either that, or Johann Lamont will have to stand in for a while, once she's filled the many gaps that would appear in the Shadow Cabinet.