Friday, 27 June 2008

Another poll

The Telegraph's end-of-month poll by Yougov shows the Conservatives even higher than the Grauniad's ICM poll earlier - by a point, 46% instead of 45%.

Labour's on 28% - which is actually up on last month when they had their lowest-ever poll rating. It appears that they are both taking votes from the Lib Dems - that party is now sitting on 15% - in the shoogly peg zone, Lib Dems took 22% in 2005 and appear to be getting seriously squeezed, they're likely to lose heavily in terms of number of seats taken.

Labour's problems are growing. Whether or not it's true, Brown appears to have taken on a bunker mentality and it's affecting the view people have of his party - 71% think his Government lacks direction and 61% say Brown is a liability. While I take John Major's point that Brown's family will be suffering and much of the criticism is personal rather than political, politics isn't a non-contact sport and Brown was part of the New Labour Project that eschewed proper political debate in favour of personality politics and presentation.

What's missing from the Telegraph story is the score for 'others' which will include the SNP on this UK poll. The figures for the other parties add up to 89% though, indicating that the SNP vote will still be incredibly strong.

Mind how you go!

Disaster for Labour news coming in just now - fifth place in the Henley vote behind the Greens and the BNP. Labour took only 3.1% - a drop of almost 12% and two places and a lost deposit.

The Lib Dems failed to make any impact on the Conservative vote, either, the Con vote actually going up by 3.5% - a swing of .81% from Lib Dem to Conservative, Lib Dem vote increasing by only 1.8%.

Only the Conservatives have anything to celebrate in Henley - a solid and improved result. They hadn't taken a casual vacancy since 1982 now they've taken two in a little over a month and will, of course, take a third victory on July 10th - unless ...
Full result:

John Howell (C) 19,796 (57%, +3.5%)
Stephen Kearney (LD) 9,680 (28%, +1.8%)
Mark Stevenson (Green) 1,321 (3.8%, +0.5%)
Timothy Rait (BNP) 1,243 (3.6%)
Richard McKenzie (Lab) 1,066 (3.1%, -11.7%)
Chris Adams (UKIP) 843 (2.4%, -0.1%)
Bananaman Owen (Loony) 242 (0.70%)
Derek Allpass (Eng Dem) 157 (0.45%)

C maj 10,116 (29.1%)
0.81% swing LD to C

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