Wednesday, 9 December 2009

Great News

There's good news from the last Ipsos MORI poll. Westminster voting intentions (change from 2005 General Election in brackets) are:
SNP: 34% (+16)
Lab: 32% (-8)
Con: 15% (-1)
Lib Dem: 12% (-11)
Other: 6%

Send it through Electoral Calculus and it shows that the SNP, on those figures, would take ten extra seats to add to the six we won at the last UK General Election and that another six Labour seats would be within a 1% swing. There's another five Labour seats within a 1.5% swing, and none of this takes into account the work being done in individual seats like Glasgow East, Edinburgh West and Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East (CKK is one seat) which could see them fall to us.

There's even better news, though, great news - Edinburgh North and Leith is one of the seats that comes to the SNP, as is Edinburgh East.

On these figures, the SNP takes new seats from Labour in:
Edinburgh North and Leith
Edinburgh East
Dundee West
Kilmarnock and Loudoun
Aberdeen North
Ochil and South Perthshire

and we take new seats from the Lib Dems in:
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey
Argyll and Bute

Conservatives would take Dumfries and Galloway from Labour.

These are the seats within that 1.5% swing:
Aberdeen South
Glasgow North
Linlithgow and East Falkirk
Edinburgh South
Ayrshire North and Arran
Paisley and Renfrewshire North
East Lothian
Dunfermline and West Fife
Edinburgh South West
Lanark and Hamilton East

Dunfermline and West Fife carries an obvious health warning thanks to the 2006 by-election, but there are also other seats where local issues might play strongly like Falkirk, Livingston and Glasgow South and seats like East Dunbartonshire where the swing for us to take it from the Lib Dems is only around 2.45% and a wee local issue might help us.

Even in Renfrewshire East we've closed the gap so the swing we need between now and the election is 5.8% - and there are only seven Labour seats safer than that. Only three Lib Dem seats need more than a 5% swing on these figures - Ross, Skye & Lochaber, Fife North East, and Orkney & Shetland.

Game on, one might say.

Mind how you go!

1 comment:

subrosa said...

That is good news Calum. A little joy in the melancholy scheme of things.