Tuesday, 14 April 2009

Opinion polling

As we hear rumours of Gordon Brown considering an election this year, I wondered what may count against it in Brown's mind, so I looked at the most recent Yougov poll and thought "what if you remove the Scottish figures?" I reckon it gives you these figures:

Conservative 43%
Labour 33%
Lib Dem 16%
Others 7%

I may be wrong but I think, even allowing for Labour's over-representation in Scotland and disallowing the seats that we're about to take from them, that those results would give Cameron a working majority.

I think Brown will lose whenever he calls the election - too many mistakes made, too much of a mess left - but I think he's also hanging on and thinking "events, dear boy, events".

Ah, Callaghan


Key bored warrior. said...

All Brown needs to feel is that he is within the rigged postal vote zone and he will go.

We are still waiting to hear about Glenrothes.

We may regret not holding them to account and he could sicken us all with another five years, God forbid.

BrianSJ said...

So what has the SNP got planned for when the Westminster cabinet comes up to Glasgow, now that GB and his attack dogs are on the ropes?

Calum Cashley said...

Ach, I don't believe that there is any large-scale organised campaign to rig the postal votes - I don't think that Labour is capable of organising anything so large these days for one thing.

I couldn't possibly reveal what's planned for the UK cabinet, but proposals are always welcome. Tea and crumpet, perhaps?