Thursday, 23 October 2008

Cashley to win Edinburgh North and Leith

Channel 4 has had a poll done in marginal seats. It shows, of course, that the SNP will storm to victory in Edinburgh North and Leith. How am I supposed to keep motivation up amongst my campaign team if opinion polls keep insisting that it's already in the bag?

Anyway, here's some fascination:

The result in Scotland against the 2005 result:

SNP - 37% (up 19%)
Lab - 32% (down 7%)
Con - 26% (up 10%)
LibD - 6% (down 17%)

I await the howls of derision.

You'll see that the Lib Dems are on 6% - you lose your deposit if you get less than 5% in a seat - see my predictions coming true?

The Lib Dems actually get pretty horsed everywhere. In true Lib Dem tradition, here's a graph:

Scotland is on the left, then Midlands/Wales (blame yougov), Rest of South (of England, I assume), North (again, of England), London. I've used party colours - Gold for SNP, red for Labour, Blue for Conservatives and dirty orange for Lib Dems. Outside of Scotland the Gold colour represents 'others'.

There we go, those figures should be wobbly enough.

Mind how you go!


Jeff said...

A sample size of 76?

Don't get me wrong, a nice wee shot in the arm but hardly a poll that one would ordinarily take seriously.

And given the main challengers may well be the Lib Dems, this poll may be betters news than good news.

Even still, population of 76!?

Calum Cashley said...

I see what you're saying - small population sample, large confidence interval so the SNP lead could be even greater and the Lib Dem share even smaller.

Yup, I thought of that but I considered they were suffering enough just now, so I let them off a wee bit.