Tuesday, 21 October 2008

Conference - oh, it's hard work

I remember the days when conference was easy, turn up, enjoy yourself, speak in the odd debate, heckle, laugh, applaud, grouse, dance, and sing. There were fringe meetings and exhibition stalls to visit, billiards to play and Pimms as the sun went down.

These days it's work, work, work - I hardly stopped from dawn till dusk. I was there at the staff reception, kindly sponsored by BAA Scotland (the airport people) where the heid bummer of BAA Scotland was very nice about us and the heid bummers of the SNP were nice in return, I was there when the world was put to rights (seventeen different times - very, very busy), I was there when the YSI pitched its case and there when the Party nodded sagely, I met old friends and made some new ones, I told old jokes and heard some new ones - a thoroughly exhausting process.

I did, though, fall in with a Lib Dem type (ach, we let all sorts into conference except dodgy bloggers) who was busy telling me about the illegal automated phone calls that the Lib Dems made. The tale goes that the information generated was used to redraw Lib Dem target seats maps before it was destroyed. She said there were going to be some disappointed candidates as well as some pleasantly surprised candidates and one or two sitting MPs who will suddenly find themselves sorely in need of a pair of brown trousers as their supposedly safe seat is no longer regarded as such.

In spite of the application of all my charm, she wouldn't tell me a flaming thing about which seats were which - so here goes soaring speculation on the back of a dodgy lead that came from someone who might not know a cheesing thing and might not tell me even if she did. It could all be disinformation, it could all be just a barrel-full of crackers, but here's the speculation anyway:

Seats the Lib Dems will lose:
Gordon - Malcolm Bruce in Gordon was always far too high a concentration of forenames but the relentless SNP campaigning there over the last couple of years will see Richard Thomson elected as the new MP.

Danny Alexander - smooth, suave and sophisticated Fergus Ewing has measured the chappie up for dispatch and it will be an SNP seat with a brand new shiny MP. I'm not telling you who.

Michael Moore - looks like a Conservative gain. Fishtishlle it!

Alan Reid - After Jim Mather's stunning victory over the Lyon one, Mike MacKenzie will bring it home for Scotland's party.

Robert Smith - very poor performer about to be horsed out by some fermer chap.

Jo Swinson - never quite cut it, oot on her ear.

Lib Dems hingin on:
Charlie Kennedy - in spite of the nastiness aimed at him, he's determined to stand again and try to save them from themselves. It has to be admitted that he has a wee bit of a chance.

Lib Dems sweatin it oot:
John Barrett - with both the SNP and the Conservatives taking bit bites out of his vote, the question is really about who'll catch him first.

John Thurso - anybody with a moustache that ridiculous has got to be in trouble.

Lib Dem seats off the target list:
Well, all the work in Edinburgh will go towards trying to save John Barrett, so there will be no Lib Dem challenge in Edinburgh South, making that a straight Labour/Conservative fight.

Lib Dems lost deposits:
Edinburgh North and Leith - classic squeeze as the battle will be between the Labour Government down south and the SNP Government here.

Both Dundee seats - again the Lib Dems will be battling for relevance as the real battle goes on.

Aberdeen North - massive slide being reported in Lib Dem vote up there.

Angus - even Labour's doing better than the Lib Dems there these days.

Ochil and South Perthshire; Perth and North Perthshire; Livingston; Linlithgow and East Falkirk; Edinburgh East; Stirling; and most of the Central Belt all fall into the same category - Lib Dems losing votes as the electors complete the transition and start looking for a real political party to support.

So where might the Lib Dems pick up votes?
Tunbridge Wells, maybe...

Time for a bun, I think!


Jeff said...

Well, I had my own list of predictions and suspicions and I was ready to disagree but I think you're spot on with each seat there.

It's probably worth nabbing one of the Edinburgh South "only the Lib Dems can win here" leaflets. Could be worth millions when they trundle in 4th...

Anonymous said...

What tosh...Thurso's Tasche is brilliant! The rest of your blog seems to be on the money though.

Stephen Glenn said...

I think you've already been eating too much cake and one of those you aquire in Amsterdam.

Calum Cashley said...

Surely you'd need it signed by the author as a verified first edition?

It's the tache that's MP, Thurso just tags along.

I assume you're referring to barcotics and I'll bow to your greater knowledge. Next tgime you're over there, though, try Haarlem (before you sample Amsterdam's delights), you'll find it delightful and far better than Amsterdam.