Monday, 10 March 2008

Be careful what you wish for

After the Cambuslang bye-election leader of the Scottish branch of the Labour party, Wendibles Alexander, described it as "an excellent result for the [Labour] party".

Hmmm - Labour took 2,403 votes in May last year - 50.4% of the vote.
Last week Labour only took 715 votes - 28%.

That's a 22 point drop, an 11% swing to the SNP. A few more excellent results of that nature and Wendy will find herself destitute - that would wipe out most of her Parliamentary group.

That was last week, of course, and it may be that Wendy has thought of some clever words to use:


Calum Cashley Fan Club Dundee said...

Not exactly a swing to the SNP as the SNP vote stayed the same. The SNP vote is still at the MAy 2007 level. Where there are numerous candidates saying there is a swing to one when their vote is the same is over egging the pudding. Labour however should be a tad worried if their vote drops like that in other seats.

Calum Cashley said...

Psephologists of the world untie!

Classic method of working out a swing - percentage change in one party's vote plus the percentage change in other party's vote divided by two.

You can even have a swing from one to the other when both parties' share of the vote has dropped - it's just a way of describing the variation in the relationship between the two rather than an absolute measure of any kind.

I say, is that my anorak over there?

You're right, though, Labour planners will be sending for the brown trousers if they're reading the signs properly.

I never had a fan club when I lived in Dundee - are you trying to tell me that I'm better liked the further away I am?