Monday 16 March 2009

Ochone ochone!

Woe is me, all is lost, we've had a wee bad poll and the world is coming to an end. Aye, right!

Jason Allardyce's piece in the Sunday Times has the SNP only up by 2 points since 2007, only a point ahead of our nearest challengers, and Labour has crept ahead by a couple of points in the Additional Member vote. It's leading to apocalyptic headlines like "Labour overtakes SNP in new Scottish poll" - how far we've come recently that such news should seem worthy of a headline, and how much further given that it's not exactly the whole story.

It might be interesting when we get the full results. I wonder why the ST never put up the full Scottish results at the same time as publication which it did with the UK results - I'm assuming the London political editor thought it was a good innovation - which it is. If you strip Scotland out of the UK results you get:

Con 44%
Lab 30%
LD 17%
oth 8%


Mind how you go.


subrosa said...

I downloaded the results thinking they would all be available only to find they're questions relating to Westminster. Was really wanting to see the wording of the questions.

Auch I'll just have to be patient.

Traquir said...

Of the 1380 the breakdown
in terms of Political
Party Identification of those surveyed was ( excluding 312 out of 1380 who expressed no

Labour 550 51%
Conservative 181 17%
Liberal 82 8%
Others 255 24%
Indeed strange for a Scottish Survey they don't even have a category for the SNP !
SNP Assuming 90% of Other (which is if anything
generous) we have 229.5 = 21% !!!!

see -

It would appear a reasonably
good guess would be
that the polling was done in Glasgow area Labour
fiefdoms (such as Paisley
and Inverclyde)
and apparently also Bearsden judging by the Tory poll numbers relative to the SNP :)

So at least twice as many people surveyed were affiliated with the Labour party as opposed
to the SNP, which is all the more strange when
'Scottish' Labour Party membership
is plummeting whilst SNP Party membership
is dramatically increasing.

Given this the only thing
that is amazing here is that Labour has only a slight
lead over the SNP
based on a poll based on
51% of the people being polled who
expressed a political affiliation being Labour and 21% being SNP !!!