They're consistently fourth in Scotland in opinion polls, third across England, miles behind the Conservatives in the South of England, they're showing up fourth in Wales and are falling further and further behind and I think they face losing seats. They don't have a leader with the charisma of Charlie Kennedy or Paddy Ashdown or even David Owen any more, having apparently been left with the runt of the litter in Nick Clegg.
Looking at opinion polls, adding in 2005 results (boundary changes coming in England), adding my excellent judgement and terrible prejudice to that, totting up what's what, I don't think they can take a single seat that they don't currently hold, I think they'll get squeezed everywhere, and I think that this is what will happen to the seats they currently hold (some nominally after boundary changes):
Inverness Nairn Badenoch & Strathspey - lose
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine - lose heavily
East Dunbartonshire - lose
Gordon - lose (taken by a blogger)
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk - lose
Argyll & Bute - lose
Dunfermline & West Fife - might hold, might lose. Willie works hard and that might be enough to save him (it'd be lost otherwise)
Edinburgh West - weakened, a possible loss and will only be saved, if it is, because of the battles going on in nearby seats (they have a terrible candidate here) - and it goes in 2011 if they do save it this time.
NE Fife - hold
Orkney & Shetland - hold
Ross, Skye & Lochaber - hold
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - hold
Furth of Scotland:
Mid Dorset & North Poole - lose to Con
Taunton Deane - lose to Con
Solihull - lose to Con
Southport - lose to Con
Cornwall North - shrinking majority, lose to ConWestmorland & Lonsdale - lose to Con
Bath - lose to Con
Romsey & Southampton North - lose to Con
Camborne & Redruth - lose to Con (Labour nominally second but have faded here)
Portsmouth South - about a 3,300 majority about to be lost to Con.
Somerton & Frome - lose to Con
Oxford West & Abingdon - boundary chanegs remove the university, Evan Harris is looking for a new job - lose to Con.
Carshalton & Wallington - a battle, but probably lose to Con
Teignbridge - the home of Buckfast is abolished, but Boris Johnston's dad got to 6,000 votes away last time, the new seat will be lost to Con.
Hornsey & Wood Green - lose to Lab
North Devon - Harvey's majority was lower in 2005 than in 1997 - lose to Con
Eastleigh - lose to Con
Torbay - lose to Con
Brecon & Radnorshire - lose to ConCheadle - lose to Con
Richmond Park - Jenny Tongue's old seat, never safe, lose to ConCheltenham - rapidly shrinking majority - lose to Con.
Birmingham Yardley - lose to Lab
Chesterfield - lose to Lab
Cambridge - won't be able tohold onto the 4,000 majority; lose to Lab
Manchester Withington - lose to Lab
Leeds North West - lose to Lab
Rochdale - the cowboys are going to ride on out, lose to Lab
Brent Central - lose to LabCeredigion - lose to Plaid
Thornbury and Yate - hold
Bristol West - hold
Cardiff Central - hold
Berwick Upon Tweed - hold
South East Cornwall - hold
Sutton & Cheam - hold
Twickenham - hold
Sheffield Hallam - hold
Kingston & Surbiton - hold
St Ives - hold
Lewes - hold
Harrogate & Knaresborough - bit of a boundary change but probably hold
Bermondsey & Old Southwark - a straight choice, hold.
Hereford - disappears Lib Dem should take new seat of Hereford and South Herefordshire
North Norfolk - hold
Yeovil - hold
Meon Valley (successor seat to Mark Oaten's Winchester - Lib Dem hold
Montgomeryshire - hold
Colchester - hold
Hazel Grove - hold
Truro & St Austell - splits in two, I've no idea how that'll pan out.
So, that's between 4 and 6 seats in Scotland and maybe 22 elsewhere. It's going to be a sore election for the Lib Dems, very sore. Far from being king-makers, questions about their viability will be asked. With no policy platform, having tossed it aside for this election, and no real purpose in politics, why would that party stay together?
Of course, I might be wrong. Mind how you go.